With the NFL preseason in full swing, we are just weeks away from real, competitive professional football. Thirty-two teams have aspirations of advancing to the postseason. After seeing the Texans, who finished 3-13-1 in 2022, jump from anonymous also-rans to division champs in a matter of months last season, no franchise is going to be counting itself out in August. Footballs bounce in funny ways, and if a team really landed a few difference-makers in the draft and hired the right coaches during the offseason, it can go from the basement to the penthouse quicker than anybody expects.
I'm focusing below on the 14 teams hoping to defend their territory from a year ago. In the first three iterations of the 14-team postseason era, about half the teams in a given season have made it back the following year. Seven returned to the playoffs after the 2020 and 2021 seasons, and eight made it back a year ago. This isn't simply teams at the margins coming up short, either. Both top seeds from 2021 (the Packers and Titans) missed the playoffs in 2022. Last season the Bengals, who had made it to the Super Bowl and the AFC Championship Game over the prior two seasons, went 9-8 and finished last in the AFC North.
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I'm going to rank the 14 playoff teams from last season by their chances of returning to the postseason. And perhaps not coincidentally, given the success rate for teams making it back in the brief 14-team era, I believe there's a significant tier gap between the top seven teams on this list and the bottom seven. It's too simplistic to suggest the seven most likely teams here will all make it back in and the seven least likely will miss, given how a quarterback injury or a couple of missed field goals can swing seasons, but just keep that history in mind as I run through these teams.
I'll start with the team I believe is most likely to return to the playoffs and work my way down to the least likely. I'm also including odds from the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) for each team returning to the playoffs, so if you don't agree with my opinions, maybe you'll be more inclined to go along with ESPN's predictive algorithm. Just about everyone agrees where this list should start, right?
Jump to a team:
49ers | Bills | Browns
Bucs | Chiefs | Cowboys
Dolphins | Eagles | Lions | Packers
Rams | Ravens | Steelers | Texans
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Chances to make the playoffs: 87.1% (FPI's best odds to return to postseason)
Why they're No. 1: They're still the Chiefs.
Some things don't need to be complicated. Picking the reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champions as the likeliest team to advance into the 2025 postseason shouldn't be controversial. With the league's seventh-youngest roster a year ago and the majority of their regulars returning, it would be stunning if the Chiefs weren't in the mix come January. They've won the AFC West by an average of four games over the past five years, so their division races haven't even been close since 2018.
Could you argue that the FPI projections are too pessimistic, then, about the chances of Patrick Mahomes & Co.? History tells us no, and it's possible (though not likely) that everything goes wrong for a team with a Hall of Fame quarterback. The closest comp in terms of early-career dominance for Mahomes is Tom Brady, and he missed the playoffs twice in 19 years as the starter in New England. Once was when the Patriots finished 9-7 in 2002, and the other time was when he tore an ACL in Week 1 and missed the rest of the 2008 campaign. Seventeen times in 19 tries is 89.5%.
With the benefit of the added 7-seed and a 17th game to help smooth out variance, the Chiefs should have a better shot of making it to the playoffs each year than Brady and the Patriots did during their run. Even if the unthinkable happened and Andy Reid were forced to turn to backup Carson Wentz early in the season, the league's second-youngest defense would give Kansas City a viable chance of making the playoffs with a reserve under center.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Chances to make the playoffs: 85.6% (FPI's second-best odds)
Why they're No. 2: Kyle Shanahan can't win with just anyone at quarterback.
Brock Purdy's ascension from seventh-round pick to superstar has led to suggestions that Shanahan is capable of taking just about anybody who isn't Josh Johnson and building a playoff team around them at quarterback. Again, history would tell us that's not true. The 49ers went 4-12 in 2018 when Jimmy Garoppolo tore his left ACL early in the season. Even after their trip to the Super Bowl the following season, they went 6-10 during another injury-impacted Garoppolo campaign in 2020. Heck, in 2021, he mostly stayed healthy and the 49ers needed a Trey Lance victory in Week 17 and an overtime win over the Rams in Week 18 just to make the postseason.
You could argue that the 49ers have a better roster now than they did in 2020 and 2021, and I might agree with that on paper. In reality, though, training camp isn't off to a great start. Christian McCaffrey is already ruled out for the preseason with a calf injury, and oft-injured backup Elijah Mitchell is banged up too. First-round receiver Ricky Pearsall has been battling a shoulder injury, which is even more pressing given the uncertain status surrounding Brandon Aiyuk. Trent Williams is healthy but holding out for guaranteed money, while defensive stars Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga are returning from serious injuries that ended their 2023 seasons, including the torn Achilles the former suffered during the Super Bowl loss.
Given the lack of draft capital the 49ers have had to work with after the Lance and McCaffrey trades and the money they've spent on their core of stars around Purdy, this isn't a team blessed with great depth. In the NFC, though, the price of playoff admission isn't quite as high as it would be in the AFC. Barring an injury to Purdy or a cascade of injuries across its core, San Francisco should be back in the postseason for the fourth consecutive season.
3. Baltimore Ravens
Chances to make the playoffs: 78.5% (FPI's fifth-best odds)
Why they're No. 3: They were the best team in the 2023 regular season.
At 13-4, the Ravens had the best record of any team before the postseason began. There was little in their underlying performance to suggest 13 wins was a fluke, either; they outscored their opposition by nearly 12 points per game. That's the 21st-best mark for any team since 1989, and those top-25 teams racked up an average of more than 14 wins per 17 games. With an MVP performance from Lamar Jackson and the league's top-rated scoring defense, Baltimore was dominant until the AFC Championship Game.
The "First Take" crew discuss whether the Eagles or Ravens are better set up to have a successful offense headed into the 2024 season.
Unlike the Chiefs and 49ers, though, the Ravens are dealing with a serious talent drain this offseason. Three of their five starting offensive linemen are no longer on the roster, while Patrick Queen, Geno Stone and Jadeveon Clowney are gone from their defense. Mike Macdonald, the coordinator who helped propel the defense forward over the past two years, is now in Seattle, replaced by a first-time coordinator in former Baltimore linebacker Zach Orr. The Ravens also play in the toughest division in football, an AFC North in which all four teams posted a winning record last season.
Having Jackson should help the Ravens cope with most of those problems, but it doesn't take much of a memory to recall how December injuries to the quarterback in 2021 and 2022 threw the team into turmoil, costing it a playoff spot and then a division title. The Ravens went 3-6 with now-Browns quarterback Tyler Huntley as their starter and currently have Josh Johnson as their backup, so if Jackson were to go down earlier in the campaign with another injury, I'd have serious concerns about their chances.
4. Detroit Lions
Chances to make the playoffs: 80.6% (FPI's third-best odds)
Why they're No. 4: One of the league's youngest teams returns virtually everybody (and adds players where it needed help).
It's good to be the Lions. The fifth-youngest team from 2023 returns the majority of its core talent from a 12-win season. Of the few players who played more than half of the snaps and didn't return for 2024, the only one likely to be missed is guard Jonah Jackson, who signed with the Rams. Even he was replaced by a solid veteran in former Ravens guard Kevin Zeitler. Considering the additions Detroit made for much-needed help on the edge (Marcus Davenport) and in the secondary (Carlton Davis, Amik Robertson, first-round pick Terrion Arnold), there just isn't much with which to quibble. This should be a very good team.
I'm a little nervous about a couple of factors, though. One is that the Lions outplayed their point differential from a year ago, going 12-5 with the scoring margin of a 10-win team. They weren't dramatically lucky in close games, going 5-3 in one-score contests, but they lost by 32 points to the Ravens and by 15 to the Bears. That alone isn't enough to keep them from making the postseason, but it suggests that the Lions might not have been quite as impressive as their record indicated.
In worrying about what might derail the season, I'd note that this team is still heavily dependent on its young stars staying healthy and effective. If wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown or top edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson were to go down, Detroit would be among the league's worst teams at those respective lineup spots. Contrast that to a team such as the Texans, who have way more depth in both spots. The Lions should have the league's best offensive line, something the Texans lack, and the additions in the secondary should make more of an impact than last year's just by virtue of staying on the field more often. I might pump the brakes on the bandwagon a tiny bit, but there's no reason to jump off.
5. Green Bay Packers
Chances to make the playoffs: 65.2% (FPI's 10th-best odds)
Why they're No. 5: The league's youngest team has an MVP candidate at quarterback.
I'd argue that the FPI probably underestimates the Packers for a couple of reasons. One is the sheer amount of youth on this roster. The average Green Bay snap last season came from a player who was 25.7 years old, the youngest mark for any team. That's a rare feat; going back through 2007, the only other teams with an average age under 26 to post a winning record were the 2018 Cowboys and 2023 Lions. The Packers have a lot of talent approaching or entering their peak seasons and improving in the process.
One of those players is Jordan Love, whose only real recent comparable in terms of usage happens to be Aaron Rodgers. After sitting for three seasons, Love finally got his chance to start. He was inconsistent early, but from Week 11 onward, he led the league in QBR (75.4) and expected points added per dropback (0.18) while throwing 18 touchdown passes against just one interception. Love will probably throw more than one interception every two months in 2024, but this is pretty straightforward: If the Packers get anything close to that version of Love, they're going to be an elite team, especially if new coordinator Jeff Hafley is able to improve an often-frustrating defense.
There are variables in play. Second-half breakouts don't always repeat the following year for young quarterbacks (see: Lawrence, Trevor). Hafley is installing a single-high scheme that might not work in a league that has shifted toward more split-safety coverages. The schedule is going to be more difficult. For all the talent the Packers have on offense, it's unclear who their top wide receivers are and what their best offensive line combination looks like, and it might take time to figure those things out. Having too many promising receivers and linemen is a problem just about every other team would love to face.
6. Buffalo Bills
Chances to make the playoffs: 70.2% (FPI's eighth-best odds)
Why they're No. 6: It's a new era for a perennial contender.
The Bills are in the middle of a roster transition. Several stalwarts of the Josh Allen era left this offseason, including wideouts Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs, center Mitch Morse, cornerback Tre'Davious White and safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Buffalo is eating more than $61 million in dead money this season, the second most of any team. This seems like a reset year as the franchise tries to envision its roster around a more expensive Allen.
Reset years don't always produce disappointing seasons, however. The Rams just made the playoffs in what looked like a reset season. The Bills themselves made the playoffs in 2017, Sean McDermott's first year with the franchise, one in which he benched Tyrod Taylor for Nathan Peterman in midseason. McDermott is an excellent defensive coach and developer of young talent, and while the names in the back end aren't as notable as they once were, I have faith that he will get more out of players such as Cole Bishop and Taylor Rapp than they showed in their prior stops.
The reality is that many of those big names were either less effective than they once were or too often injured to make a reliable impact. (Another player in that group, Von Miller, remains on the roster only after taking a pay cut.) I expect the Jets and Patriots to improve this season, which will hurt the Bills' chances of dominating the AFC East, but I'd be surprised if Allen isn't able to propel this team into the postseason for the sixth straight year.
7. Houston Texans
Chances to make the playoffs: 64.6% (FPI's 11th-best odds)
Why they're No. 7: Have you seen the AFC?
The Texans have a lot to be excited about. C.J. Stroud was phenomenal as a rookie last season, and the young quarterback looks like he's a legitimate superstar. Will Anderson Jr. became the young difference-maker Houston has long sought on the edge. The organization added a star receiver to the mix in Stefon Diggs, and after the Texans won a playoff game in January, the AFC South looks like it could be theirs for the next several seasons.
Of course, you could have said much the same 12 months ago about the Jacksonville Jaguars, whose unquestioned reign atop the division lasted about half a season. The parallels aren't exact. The Texans have added more to the roster this offseason than the Jags did a year ago, but the moves weren't all additive: Danielle Hunter is still an excellent pass rusher, but he's taking over for the departed Jonathan Greenard, who had 12.5 sacks a year ago.
The "Get Up" crew discuss how C.J. Stroud became such a popular early betting candidate for MVP.
Unlike the Lions and Packers in our triumvirate of sexy breakout teams, the Texans were one of the league's oldest squads, a product of general manager Nick Caserio choosing to construct his roster around lots of veterans on short-term deals during the rebuild. That move likely accelerated Houston's improvement once it landed young difference-makers in Stroud, Anderson and Derek Stingley, but it also might limit the team's ability to grow around that core.
For every team like the Jaguars that doesn't build on its breakout season, there's one like the 2023 Lions, who came through and took another leap forward. That's obviously in the range of outcomes for the Texans. In an AFC in which just about every serious playoff contender seems to have a quarterback with MVP upside, though, there are no guarantees they will land a playoff spot if they fail to win the AFC South. And while they should be favorites to reclaim the division title, well, both the FPI and I are a little more nervous about their chances than the public seems to be.
8. Dallas Cowboys
Chances to make the playoffs: 77.8% (FPI's sixth-best odds)
Why they're No. 8: "lol"
That was CeeDee Lamb's response when team owner Jerry Jones suggested he didn't have any "urgency" to get a new deal done with his star wide receiver. Lamb and Dak Prescott are both free agents after the season, while Micah Parsons will also be eligible for a new contract. The negotiations and lack of progress have held the Cowboys hostage all offseason, in part because Jones seems more interested in winning news conferences than building the best possible football team for 2024.
The money put aside for the pending free agents caused the Cowboys to lose six players who suited up for at least half of the offensive or defensive snaps a year ago, including Tyron Smith, Stephon Gilmore and Tony Pollard. The only veterans they added to the roster were Ezekiel Elliott and Eric Kendricks, both of whom are on the downside of their (illustrious) careers. Dallas' roster construction has always leaned top-heavy over the past two decades, but the current squad is an even more extreme example of that philosophy heading into the season.
Pessimism about the rest of the NFC East has me leaning toward the Cowboys as the favorites to win the division by default, but it's difficult to see how this team is better than it was in 2023 because of the peak performances it saw from its stars a year ago and the talent drain behind them, which seems to cap the ceiling. And if Dallas doesn't have Prescott, Lamb or Parsons for any stretch of time, it's tough to see how it can get by for very long. I still think the Cowboys are a playoff team, but I'm not as optimistic as the FPI about their chances.
9. Philadelphia Eagles
Chances to make the playoffs: 79.4% (FPI's fourth-best odds)
Why they're No. 9: Five points.
That's the number of points the Eagles outscored their opposition by last season, which is usually the mark of a .500 team. They were on our list of teams likely to decline last season, and while it didn't exactly feel great when they started 10-1, the 1-6 stretch that followed confirmed that they weren't as talented or successful as the team that went to Super Bowl LVII. A blowout loss in Tampa confirmed an offseason full of bad vibes for Philly.
It would be simplistic to say the Eagles weren't as good as looked during that 10-1 start and not as bad as they looked during the one-win finale, but even that's too favorable toward how they played. They went 7-1 in one-score games during that 11-game start to the season, eventually finishing 7-3 in close contests. They did that against a below-average schedule, per the FTN Football Almanac, and with the best special teams DVOA of any team.
Changes have been made, of course. Saquon Barkley and Devin White are in. C.J. Gardner-Johnson is back. The Eagles loaded up on cornerbacks in the draft and replaced both of their coordinators with veterans who have been successful elsewhere in Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio. Seemingly every starter on the offense besides Jalen Hurts got a new contract this offseason. Anything that happened after Big Dom was ejected from the loss to the 49ers last season will never appear on an Eagles jumbotron again.
And yet, we know teams that win 11 games with a basically even point differential almost always decline. The coordinators didn't exactly put up great seasons a year ago with talent in Los Angeles and Miami. Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox retired, and the offensive and defensive lines are relying more on young, unproven talent than they have over the past couple of years. White was benched in Tampa last season. Barkley struggled to stay healthy for the Giants. Gardner-Johnson is already banged up.
I still lean toward thinking the Eagles are a playoff team, given the talent throughout their roster and the potential for their young players to improve. There's more combustibility here and both a higher ceiling and a lower floor than it might seem from their past few seasons. They can make it back to the Super Bowl but are also capable of missing the postseason altogether.
10. Miami Dolphins
Chances to make the playoffs: 60.4% (FPI's 12th-best odds)
Why they're No. 10: December 2023 and January 2024.
Things weren't much better down the stretch for the Dolphins, who lost three of their final five games to hand the division to the Bills. The Week 18 loss to Buffalo sent the Dolphins to Arrowhead for the divisional round, where they mustered 13 first downs in a 26-7 loss. While the team's 2022 slide could be chalked up in part to the absence of injured quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, his struggles over the final month-plus were on display last season.
What might be more meaningful for 2024, though, is what happened to the team broadly in the final month of the season. Bradley Chubb suffered a torn ACL, and when combined with the torn Achilles endured by Jaelan Phillips in late November, the Dolphins should be dealing with limited or absent top edge rushers at the beginning of this season. Shaq Barrett, one of the players acquired to fill in for the missing duo, retired at the start of camp.
With Tagovailoa penciled in for the massive raise he eventually agreed to in late July, the Dolphins were forced to cut back after two offseasons of heavy spending. Christian Wilkins and Robert Hunt, the two most expensive non-quarterbacks on the market, left in free agency. An offensive line that had finally coalesced after years of struggling to protect Tagovailoa will have new starters at center and right guard, while left guard Isaiah Wynn is on the physically unable to perform list and left tackle Terron Armstead has missed 11 games and left three others early over the past two seasons. The most obvious path for the Dolphins to fall apart would involve a Tagovailoa injury, and the line protecting him looks more vulnerable than it has since his early days in aqua and orange.
If the Jets and Patriots both improve as expected, the AFC East will be a slog. The FTN Football Almanac projects the Dolphins to play the league's third-toughest schedule. Under Mike McDaniel, they have been good enough over the first three months of the season to overcome their play afterward. If the injuries and uncertainty on both sides of the line of scrimmage keep them from getting off to that hot start, they might have no choice but to find ways to win in December and January if they want to keep their playoff streak alive.
11. Los Angeles Rams
Chances to make the playoffs: 47.2% (FPI's 14th-best odds)
Why they're No. 11: Absences.
The most glaring absence for this L.A. team is the Hall of Fame-sized hole in its defensive line. Aaron Donald's retirement fundamentally changes what the Rams are capable of doing on that side of the ball, piling more pressure on last season's young breakout pass rushers in Byron Young and Kobie Turner. I like what the team did this offseason to add young players up front (Florida State linemen Jared Verse and Braden Fiske in the draft) and low-cost veterans in the secondary (safety Kam Curl and corners Tre'Davious White and Darious Williams), but there's no replacing one of the greatest defenders in league history. The Rams will also be without defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, who left to take the head-coaching job in Atlanta.
We already knew about Donald, but suddenly, there are absences to be worried about on offense, too. The Rams are dealing with injuries to nearly half of their first-team offense, including Kyren Williams (foot), Puka Nacua (knee), Rob Havenstein (ankle), Jonah Jackson (scapula) and Alaric Jackson (ankle). That's three starting linemen and the team's two fine young playmakers. The hope is they'll all be back for Week 1, but these were the guys who were supposed to be healthy around veterans Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, both of whom are on the wrong side of 30 and have had recent issues staying close to 100 percent for entire seasons.
As long as Stafford and most of the key offensive contributors are healthy, the Rams should be able to do enough to make it back into the postseason, especially in a weakened NFC West. We just saw this team fall apart in 2022, though, because it wasn't able to keep Stafford on the field for the second half of the season. Those Rams went 2-4 down the stretch. They'll need to have all (or at least most) hands on deck to survive for a full season.
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chances to make the playoffs: 33.6% (FPI's 21st-best odds)
Why they're No. 12: The margin between the top two (or three) teams in the NFC South was (and is) very thin.
In last year's version of this column, the Buccaneers ranked last among the 14 teams I was expecting to return to the postseason. Full credit to Baker Mayfield & Co. for exceeding my expectations, but let's also be realistic about where they were. They finished with the same record as the 9-8 Saints, who beat them handily when they had a chance to clinch the division at home in Week 17. They were two games ahead of the Falcons, who had a clear problem at quarterback and upgraded by signing Kirk Cousins and using a top-10 pick on Michael Penix Jr. The 2023 Buccaneers finished 17th in DVOA. The Saints were 15th. The Falcons were 28th, but they fell off dramatically in the final two weeks, when coach Arthur Smith was all but out the door.
I'm not sure there's a huge gap between any of these teams heading into 2024. The biggest difference between the three might be their schedule; by virtue of winning the division last season, the Bucs have to play the Lions and 49ers, while the others in the NFC South avoid the first-place teams from the NFC North and West. And while acknowledging that this is certainly the weaker conference, I'm not sure any of these teams are strong enough to land a wild-card berth, something I feel more confident about in the case of every NFC team ahead of Tampa Bay on this list.
13. Cleveland Browns
Chances to make the playoffs: 33.5% (FPI's 20th-best odds)
Why they're No. 13: They're the only team that might be saddled by its starting quarterback returning to health.
On one hand, you might say the Browns were unlucky last season. They lost both their starting offensive tackles for most of the year and were down to third-stringers by the time they lost to the Texans in the postseason. Myles Garrett was playing at a Defensive Player of the Year level before suffering a shoulder injury that slowed him down in the second half of the season. And of course, they started five different quarterbacks during the regular season, something that hasn't been done in a non-strike season since 1984.
That team in 1984 was the Bears. Like the Browns, they made it to the postseason on the back of a dominant defense. And in 1985, well, you probably know what happened: One of the best defenses in league history propelled Jim McMahon & Co. all the way to a Super Bowl title. Given how great Cleveland was when healthy last season, there's always a chance it fields an elite defense and uses that to make it back into the postseason.
The "First Take" crew debate whether Browns QB Deshaun Watson or Steelers QB Russell Wilson needs to win the AFC North the most.
These Browns are locked into Deshaun Watson at quarterback, though, and Watson hasn't been good or even close to good since his final snaps for the Texans in 2020. He wasn't as effective as street free agent and late-career journeyman Joe Flacco in 2023, and Cleveland fans and players are smart enough to notice the difference. If Watson struggles again early this season, there will be legitimate complaints about whether the Browns are wasting a great defense with an unloved, overpaid starting quarterback.
That 1984 Bears team went 10-6 with a 10.5-win Pythagorean expectation, suggesting that further growth was ahead. The 2023 Browns were 11-6 with a 9.4-win Pythagorean expectation, buoyed by a 6-2 record in games decided by seven points or fewer. Given the likely improvement from the Bengals, Chargers and Jets, the questions about Watson's effectiveness and the inconsistency even great defenses show from year to year, the FPI is nervous about Cleveland's chances of returning to the postseason. So am I.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers
Chances to make the playoffs: 29.0% (FPI's 22nd-best odds)
Why they're No. 14: I foolishly choose not to believe in Mike Tomlin Magic.
I know, I know. Don't make the same mistake twice. Or three times. Or however many times the numbers say to count out the Steelers. Tomlin has managed to coax at least eight wins out of his team in every single season he has coached the franchise, a streak that has survived dismal quarterback play, injuries and woefully inept offensive playcallers. You know I'm about to get to the numbers, but the numbers shouldn't apply to Pittsburgh.
Maybe they shouldn't, but in the past, this was the same story I heard about other teams that weren't going to regress toward the mean. Ask the 2020-21 Packers and Titans, teams that gleefully defied the numbers. In 2022, they both fell to earth in exactly the way the data would have suggested. The 2011-13 Colts broke the rules until ... they didn't anymore.
And so, regrettably, I must report that the Steelers should not be able to keep this up. They went 10-7 while being outscored by 20 points last season. They were 9-2 in one-score games. They were the league's ninth-oldest team, combining one of the youngest offenses with the oldest defense. They're also about to take Russell Wilson and Justin Fields to a showdown of Hall of Fame-caliber quarterbacks in their prime in the AFC.
There's no reason anybody should think this would work if it weren't for the fact that, well, it's the Steelers and Tomlin, and they seem to defy the odds every year. I'll cover this more in my column on teams likely to decline, but that isn't really the case. From 2007 to 2019, Tomlin went 61-50-1 (.549) in games decided by seven points or fewer. Over the past four seasons, with limited or replacement-level quarterback play, he's a combined 29-10-1 (.738) in those same contests.
Can he keep doing this? Maybe. In a brutally difficult division, on the tougher side of the bracket, and with castoffs at quarterback? If anyone can, it's Tomlin.