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Special to ESPN.com- Reed Kuhn is a Silicon Valley entrepreneur, and strategy and analytics consultant. He is the author of "Fightnomics: The Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts," the first book to quantify drivers and performance metrics in combat sports.
What do the analytics say about upcoming championship fights like Dricus Du Plessis versus Israel Adesanya, Sean O'Malley versus Merab Dvalishvili and Ilia Topuria versus Max Holloway?
Using predictive models agnostic of betting lines, we examined how each champion's matchup appears from a favorability view. Essentially, is this a good matchup for the champion or the challenger? The inputs consider each fighter's performance metrics inside the Octagon and select factors about the fighter outside the cage. The higher the score, the more favorable the matchup for the incumbent champ.
These scores don't indicate how to bet the fight. They assess relative favorability, running from the riskiest to the best matchup.
Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker look ahead at the UFC title fights currently scheduled, along with recently booked UFC 308 main event between featherweight champion Topuria and former champion Holloway. Kuhn provides the model projections for each fight, while Parker details the betting perspective.
Editor's note: All odds are courtesy of ESPN BET.
Confirmed UFC title bouts
Middleweight title: Dricus Du Plessis (c) vs. Israel Adesanya, UFC 305 on Aug. 17
Analysis: -0.04, mildly unfavorable for Du Plessis
Kuhn on what the numbers mean: You'd think I'd favor the grappler here, but Adesanya has faced and defeated plenty of those. Du Plessis is a solid striker in his own right, but Adesanya's distance game is elite. A glaring defensive hole in Du Plessis' standup is likely driving this lean. His tendency to eat power strikes while coming forward could work against him here, especially if Adesanya's takedown defense holds for extended periods. Du Plessis has turned in a string of solid wins, but this matchup will test his grappling perseverance, as well as his chin.
Parker on where the bettors lean: Adesanya to win OR fight goes the distance. Currently, Du Plessis is sitting as a +110 underdog and Adesanya is the favorite at -130. Adesanya's odds are advantageous, as I believe he can keep the fight on the feet, giving him a striking advantage. The other bet to look out for is this being a long fight. Du Plessis is extremely durable and never put away in his UFC career, and while Adesanya has been finished, the champion might struggle to get close enough to land that KO shot on the challenger.
Bantamweight title: Sean O'Malley (c) vs. Merab Dvalishvili, UFC 306 on Sep. 14
Analysis: -0.31, strongly unfavorable for O'Malley
Kuhn on what the numbers mean: In glaring striker versus grappler matchups, the numbers lean towards the grappler. O'Malley's massive frame and precise power striking make him arguably the best striker in the division. However, his takedown defense is surprisingly average, something not usually seen in strikers who win a title -- such as Israel Adesanya and Max Holloway -- and prefer to keep fights standing.
So, despite Dvalishvili's lack of size compared to the champion, we can expect him to press for takedowns repeatedly to disrupt O'Malley's strategy. To dethrone the champion, Dvalishvili will need to be more productive on the ground than Petr Yan managed against O'Malley, and also absorb less damage during standing exchanges.
Parker on where the bettors lean: An O'Malley finish or a Dvalishvili marathon. Dvalishvili must avoid the knockout power of O'Malley and turn this into a five-round wrestling match. O'Malley should play the sprawl and brawl tactic until he finds his opponent's chin.
Therefore, the props I am eyeing are for O'Malley to win by TKO/KO and Dvalishvili to win by decision. Dvalishvili has a history of being knocked down in fights, but he has found ways to still win each time, usually by decision. The question is, if he gets dropped by O'Malley, can he recover?
Women's flyweight title: Alexa Grasso (c) vs. Valentina Shevchenko 3, UFC 306 on Sep. 14
Analysis: +0.15, favorable for Grasso
Kuhn on what the numbers mean: No surprise that the models like Grasso, given they've backed her twice already as a sizable underdog against Shevchenko. The striking metrics are very close. Shevchenko has elite defensive avoidance at range, but Grasso presses at a better pace and lands more strikes per minute. Grasso's poor defense is notable, but with Shevchenko now 36 years old, and Grasso having already scored a knockdown in their last fight, the power edge may lean Grasso. Her submission game is also much more dangerous, as Shevchenko has already learned.
Parker on where the bettors lean: Bet on Shevchenko. In their first fight, Shevchenko was well on her way to a successful title defense until she made a grave mistake that cost her the belt. In the rematch at UFC 285, I scored the fight for Shevchenko, although the judges scored it as a draw, thus leaving Grasso as champion. I still believe Shevchenko is the better fighter, no matter where the fight goes in the Octagon. And it's hard to imagine she doesn't correct past mistakes in the trilogy bout. Grasso is dangerous if she can get her opponent's back, but if Shevchenko can prevent that from happening again, the title should go back to Kyrgyzstan.
Featherweight title: Ilia Topuria (c) vs. Max Holloway, UFC 308 on Oct. 26
Analysis: +0.14, favorable for Topuria
Kuhn on what the numbers mean: Topuria will be facing one of the greatest strikers of all time, but he has already passed his first big test against Volkanovski with flying colors. Topuria didn't need his wrestling in that fight, but he has the skill set to dominate opponents on the ground, should he want or need the fight to get there.
Holloway's historically good takedown defense and evasiveness make this close, but Topuria is young and durable and brings a lot more power per punch.
Parker on where the bettors lean: Holloway to win OR fight goes the distance. Topuria has been nothing short of impressive in his UFC career thus far, while Holloway's win over Justin Gaethje for the BMF title reminded everyone why he is a UFC legend. It's hard not to take Holloway here at likely underdog odds. He has a chin made of granite and has never been knocked out. Topuria is used to being the better boxer in his matchups, but against Holloway, I wonder if that is the case. For this fight, I would look at the underdog odds for Holloway and the over, as I believe Holloway can endure the power of Topuria, win or lose.
Past title projections
Interim heavyweight title: Tom Aspinall (c) def. Curtis Blaydes 2, UFC 304
Analysis: -0.16, unfavorable for Aspinall
Kuhn on what the numbers mean: Aspinall's stats to date have been impressive, but with limited sample size, given he's only been out of the first round once. I liked the plus-money side for Blaydes in their first meeting and arguably got lucky with Aspinall's leg injury stoppage. Hopefully, we will see these guys put in work this time so that fight fans can see a competitive matchup.
The unfavorability stems from Blaydes' ground game, which is among the best in the division -- second only to Jailton Almeida in terms of dominance. Aspinall has a good ground game, but he's only faced two takedown attempts in his UFC career. Expect Blaydes to test the interim champ's wrestling more than ever. When Blaydes avoids extended periods of standup with power strikers -- like Aspinall -- he generally succeeds. History says, when in doubt, lean towards the grappler. Can Aspinall overcome history and the model and retain his title?
Parker on where the bettors lean: Aspinall to win. Blaydes is a good kickboxer and we know is a good offensive wrestler. But as we saw against Almeida, he's easily taken down even when the striking is not a threat. Aspinall currently sits at -245, and there is still tremendous value there. If you don't want to risk that number, wait for the TKO/KO prop to come out for Aspinall. I am confident that Aspinall will run through Blaydes in this rematch.
Welterweight title: Belal Muhammad def. Leon Edwards (c), UFC 304
Analysis: -0.05, mildly unfavorable for Edwards
Kuhn on what the numbers mean: This one surprises me more than the others, as these two look fairly evenly matched on paper. Arguably, the metrics for Edwards could be viewed as depressed slightly due to spending the last 20 rounds of Octagon time against elite opponents Nate Diaz, Kamaru Usman (twice) and Colby Covington.
Muhammad is another capable wrestler who has developed decent standup. But his six knockdowns received and zero scored mean he's at risk in a shootout on the feet against "Rocky." Muhammad's wrestling will have to be stifling to mitigate that risk, and executing that plan over five rounds is no sure thing. Knowing there's a decent gap in the fighters' "strength of schedule" makes me believe Edwards is still in the driver's seat here.
Parker on where the bettors lean: Hit the over + fight going the distance. The betting community's leanings for this fight will be towards either the over -- which I assume will be over 4.5 rounds -- the fight going the distance, or whichever side you are on to win by submission. The fighters have combined for just one TKO loss in their respective histories. Both are very durable and high-IQ fighters, and I expect this to be a five-round chess match.