2024 fantasy football breakouts: Eight players to watch this season

The air is starting to smell and breathe just a bit different.

Almost every notable free agent has a home, and the NFL draft is behind us. That means fantasy football season is getting closer.

It's about to be a busy few months of content before we're traveling at full speed for the 18 weeks of the season, as we'll dive into a ton here on ESPN.com to get you ready for drafts.

So, let's dig into a handful of fantasy football breakout candidates for the 2024 season.

Field Yates: The term breakout can be taken a lot of different ways but generally applies to players due for a huge leap forward in production relative to last season or however many years they've been in the league. This isn't just out-of-nowhere diamonds in the rough, as you might already know a lot about many of the players on this list. For the purposes of this piece, we'll stick to non-rookies.

Because I'm feeling gentlemanly today, I'll go first and start with ...

... Jets WR Garrett Wilson. If you're a loyal reader of this annual column and are saying, "Wasn't Wilson near the top of this list last year?" -- the answer is yes. Wilson has back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons to begin his career and 178 catches to his name already, but he has done so with poor quarterback play. The conceit of the pitch around Wilson last year was that he'd play with a four-time NFL MVP quarterback who should make Wilson a more dangerous and efficient receiver with more touchdown opportunities. Wilson had nine games last season with at least 10 targets but had just three touchdowns (after just four as a rookie). The reason Wilson hasn't had a top-20 season in his career has zero to do with him and everything to do with his surroundings. A healthy Aaron Rodgers means a monster year for Wilson.

Mike Clay: Wow, wow! Shots fired right out of the gate. Wilson was my dude last year. I drafted him everywhere. Yes, it went poorly (thanks for nothing, Achilles gods), but I'm fully prepared to double down in 2024!

OK, since you stole him, I'll pivot elsewhere. Believe it or not, I played basketball as a kid. Was I tall? No? Was I naturally gifted? No. Did I overcome those limitations and perform at a high level due to my grittiness and smarts? Also no. But I did pick up a few things along the way.

One of those things was that we always began practice with layups. So, I'm going to apply that lesson here by starting with Colts QB Anthony Richardson. The 2022 No. 4 pick was limited to two full games as a rookie, although he made a major impact before leaving two other games due to injury. In those four outings, the Colts scored 11 TDs (2.8 per game), compared with 26 (2.0) in their other 13 games. Richardson totaled seven scores (three passing, four rushing) and produced 20-plus fantasy points in both full games. With a solid/improved supporting cast led by Michael Pittman Jr., Jonathan Taylor and rookie Adonai Mitchell, Richardson has top-five upside in fantasy.

Field: We have two choices here, Michael. We can keep writing this article and serving the masses like I'm sure the fantastic editors here at ESPN would like for us to do ... or we can do the thing that everyone in the world wants right now: Dig up your old basketball film! For the record, I'm imagining you as the Nikola Jokic of ESPN.

Fun fact: Falcons WR Drake London averaged 29.8 points per game as a hooper during his senior year in high school, which is also approximately how many targets I'd like to see him receive per game this upcoming season. For a player I know is a baller, London has been on the wrong side of circumstances through two pro seasons.

In those two seasons, the following players have completed a pass for the Falcons: Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke, Logan Woodside and London himself. The Falcons' quarterback room is now well stocked with Kirk Cousins plus Michael Penix Jr. as an insurance plan.

London has hauled in just 62.1% of his targets so far in his career, a stat that is much more reflective of the quarterback play than of London's own ability. He has just six receiving touchdowns in two seasons and just two games with a catch of 40-plus yards. Better quarterback play is going to let the world see how good he is. He's a top-15 wideout for me.

Mike: First of all, if you want to see film of the shortest kid in seventh grade sitting on a bench for a couple of hours, I can help you out! I also have footage of paint drying or Field practicing his short game.

Anyway, let me tell you why you should think hard before passing on Titans RB Tyjae Spears in 2024 fantasy drafts. The second-year back split Tennessee backfield duties almost exactly down the middle with franchise legend Derrick Henry last season, and now Henry will be replaced by inferior runner (albeit more versatile) Tony Pollard. We didn't get a super-long look at Spears as a rusher, and he benefited from light boxes, but he showed well by averaging 4.53 yards per carry on 100 attempts. Where the third-rounder really shined was as a pass-catcher, having finished top 10 among RBs in targets, receptions and receiving yards. Spears is smaller than Pollard and not as experienced as a rusher, which figures to limit his carry total and goal-line work, but the 22-year-old is certainly a good bet for more work in his second season. After being a top-35 fantasy RB as a rookie, don't be surprised if Spears leaps into the RB2 mix in PPR formats this season.

Field: Whoa. I feel like Tom Brady right now with all these verbal jabs I'm taking. Your words hurt!

I'm going to move on and choose to ignore your vitriol. While some probably feel as though a breakout player needs to be someone who has already been in the NFL before, I'm going to make my own rules and choose the rookie I'm most optimistic about in fantasy this season: Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Anyone who follows the NFL draft closely knows the credentials of Harrison, whom I viewed as the most pro-ready player in the entire class, regardless of position. He's an effortless player who combines size, speed and body control.

On top of the skill set he brings to the table, Harrison has a goldmine opportunity in Arizona. The team saw Marquise Brown depart in free agency, traded away Rondale Moore and let Zach Ertz go late last season, meaning three of Arizona's top five target-getters in 2023 are gone without the team making a significant move at wide receiver besides selecting Harrison.

We always talk about how fantasy football performance stems from your ability and your opportunity. It's safe to say Harrison has major game with a major role. He's another top-15 wide receiver for me and could see 125-plus targets as a rookie.

Mike: Wait, so you're tired of my verbal jabs and then you proceed to literally break the rules of the column?! Field, it literally says, "For the purposes of this piece, we'll stick to non-rookies" in the introduction to this column. I know you're all "Mr. Big Time" now after working with Nick Saban during the draft, but that doesn't mean you can just do whatever you want.

Wait, hold on ... phone is ringing ...

...

OK, I'm back. It was ESPN chairman Jimmy Pitaro. He said, "Field can do whatever he wants."

Sooo, this is awkward ... Let's just move on.

My next breakout player is Panthers QB Bryce Young. Here's a question: Was Young actually bad last season, or were his struggles a product of (A) being a rookie QB and (B) a dysfunctional offense with the league's shakiest supporting cast on a team that fired its head coach after 11 games?

There are some signs Young wasn't as bad as you might think. For starters, he had a good connection with his top receiver, Adam Thielen. Young completed 75% of his passes and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt to Thielen but had a 55% completion rate and 5.0 YPA to everyone else (a group led by rookie Jonathan Mingo and DJ Chark Jr.). Young also did well avoiding interceptions (10 in 527 attempts) and, though he didn't run much, averaged 6.5 yards per carry (second best among QBs). Young enters his second season with Dave Canales leading the offense (the same man who guided Baker Mayfield to a career year in Tampa Bay last season) and with a substantially better group of targets, including elite route-runner Diontae Johnson and early-round rookies Xavier Legette and Jonathon Brooks. Year 2 is the breakout window for quarterbacks, and there's reason to believe Young can make a big leap.

OK, back to you for one more, Field. Perhaps we follow the rules this time? Maybe? Whatever you think. Just please don't get me fired.

Field: Wait, there are rules for this thing? Who wrote those rules? Don't answer that, Mike!

Also, isn't it at least remotely possible Harrison beat an actual NFL defensive back in a one-on-one drill as a boy running around at Colts training camp when his dad was playing? Seems likely, IMO.

Time for my final pick. Have you heard that the Bills traded away Stefon Diggs this offseason? If not ... #BREAKING.

It'll be a collective effort to replace him, with contributions from Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir (whom I almost made my pick here), Curtis Samuel and other wide receivers.

But perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the trade, as far as what it means for his volume of work, is TE Dalton Kincaid, who is poised for a mammoth season that should include leading Buffalo in catches (he trailed only Diggs last season). Kincaid saw at least seven targets in seven games as a rookie, and that sort of workload might look like a quiet day at the office this season.

On top of general target usage, Kincaid should see a boost in touchdown opportunities in 2024. He managed just two touchdown catches last season, a number I trust to rise in part because of his expanded role and in part because I think Josh Allen has an MVP-level year in him.

Speaking of MVPs, back to you Mike (Wait. Why am I being nice to you!?).

Mike: You'll have to excuse me, I did, in fact, think this was the "Roast of Field Yates," but it turns out that's not until next month. Speaking of which, are there any topics you'd specifically like me to avoid during the roast? I need to ensure that I feature those topics and reference them as much as possible. Let me know.

In the meantime, let's wrap this thing up...

I actually struggled with who to feature here, as I like several more players (Lions WR Jameson Williams, Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Saints WR Rashid Shaheed are fun names), but I ultimately settled on Raiders RB Zamir White. Las Vegas decided against re-signing longtime feature back Josh Jacobs during the offseason, which was an indication White will be their new lead back. That premise was solidified when the Raiders' only additions at the position were Alexander Mattison (who busted as Minnesota's lead back in 2023) and sixth-round rookie and receiving specialist Dylan Laube (who, by the way, is only three months younger than White). White has some pedigree (fourth-rounder in 2022), and we've already seen him have some success in a lead-back role.

With Jacobs sidelined for the final four games of last season, White's weekly fantasy finishes were as follows: 12th, 16th, 16th and 19th. He played 69% of the snaps, handled 76% of the designed runs (21.0 per game) and 10% of the targets (3.3 per game). Though he found the end zone only once and didn't do much as a receiver, White was effective on the ground (4.7 YPC), which helped him to 15.2 fantasy PPG during the span (11th best).

White might be limited a bit as a receiver, but he has good size (6-foot, 214 pounds) and very well could dominate the carries and goal line work. Don't be shocked if he finishes 2024 as a top-20 fantasy back.

OK, that's a wrap, Field. It's been ... fun? See you in September!