To look at the bigger picture and just how good -- or bad -- every team could be this season, we turned to our ESPN Football Power Index. FPI projected win totals for every team based on 20,000 season simulations performed by our ESPN Stats & Information team, but to find a high and low, we picked out the middle 90% of those simulations. That gave us a ceiling and a floor in terms of expected record for each team in 2024, with extremely unlikely outliers eliminated.
What can we expect for each team this season? If everything goes right, what might each team's record be? And if the worst scenario plays out, what would their records look like? We pulled the FPI ceilings and floors for every team, then asked our NFL Nation reporters to explain the biggest factor that will determine where each team falls within that win-total spectrum. However, our reporters weren't allowed to go with the easy answer and write about the success or failure of the quarterback they cover.
In this exercise last year, our analysis theorized that the Chiefs' pass rush would be the biggest determining factor on whether they reached their ceiling. Kansas City finished second in sacks last year with 57, and that aggressive defense helped the Chiefs win their second straight Super Bowl.
Let's go division by division, starting with the AFC East:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest X factor: Offseason changes
The Bills' offseason included significant changes. The team moved on from a number of veteran players -- six of eight 2023 team captains have departed. From the revamped wide receiver room -- Khalil Shakir is the only one who caught a pass last year -- to a new center in Connor McGovern, to having new starting safeties, the Bills will be relying on those additions to make positive contributions. How the team's returning veteran leaders step up, and the type of impact the new players have, will go a long way in the Bills' quest for a fifth straight division title. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Miami Dolphins
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest X factor: Pass-rush depth
The Dolphins effectively ran out of pass rushers by the end of last season, which coincided with their sputtering end to the year. They emphasized building depth this offseason, drafting Chop Robinson and Mohamed Kamara, who both saw extended runs during training camp while starters Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb worked their way back from season-ending injuries. Phillips is back, and if he can reach (and surpass) his form from last season, Miami should have an exciting rotation of pass rushers. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
New England Patriots
Ceiling: 7-10 | Floor: 3-14
Biggest X factor: Offensive line
Coach Jerod Mayo said he wants the Patriots to be a running team, which would take pressure off a passing offense that doesn't have a No. 1 receiver and projects to initially be led by veteran Jacoby Brissett before No. 3 pick Drake Maye takes over at some point. The early returns along the line have been shaky, especially at tackle, where Vederian Lowe is the current top left tackle and Chukwuma Okorafor is the current top right tackle. But with Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson as top running backs, the Patriots have solid talent at that position. -- Mike Reiss
New York Jets
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest X factor: Offensive line
This one's easy. To keep Aaron Rodgers upright, which is priority No. 1, the Jets need dramatic improvement from their line, which allowed 64 sacks last season. The personnel is better, as they brought in three new starters -- LT Tyron Smith, LG John Simpson and RT Morgan Moses. The key is keeping them healthy, especially Smith, who has missed 37 games in the past four seasons. -- Rich Cimini
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9
Biggest X factor: Offensive line
The Ravens decided to go younger on the offensive line, letting guards Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson sign elsewhere and trading right tackle Morgan Moses to the Jets. The three new up-front starters -- Baltimore has yet to officially name them -- will have a major impact, especially with their pass protection. When Lamar Jackson has been sacked four or more times in his career, Baltimore is 8-9 (.470). When Jackson is sacked three or fewer times, the Ravens are 50-10 (.833). -- Jamison Hensley
Cincinnati Bengals
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9
Biggest X factor: Secondary play
The Bengals allowed the most yards per pass attempt last season. Bringing back safety Vonn Bell has been big for improving communication in the secondary, which was a major point of emphasis. Bell, new free safety Geno Stone and improvement from CB DJ Turner in his second season could flip the fortunes of a unit that is looking to regain the form it had in 2022, when the Bengals were 12th in yards per attempt allowed. -- Ben Baby
Cleveland Browns
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest X factor: RB Nick Chubb
Since entering the NFL in 2018, Chubb has anchored the Browns' offense. But a severe left knee injury last September -- the second he has experienced -- required a pair of surgeries and could keep him off the field for the early portion of the season. Even when Chubb does return, how quickly he can recapture his Pro Bowl form could play a big role in whether Cleveland returns to the playoffs for a second straight season. -- Daniel Oyefusi
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest X factor: Wide receiver depth
The Steelers have a clear No. 1 receiver in George Pickens, but beyond that, the depth is murky. The team traded away Diontae Johnson in the offseason and added veteran Van Jefferson and rookie Roman Wilson. In an effort to shore up the position, the Steelers engaged in talks with the 49ers for a potential Brandon Aiyuk trade, but so far, that hasn't come to fruition. Wilson has missed a big chunk of training camp with an ankle injury. Jefferson, though, has been a consistent No. 2 during camp practices. If his preseason productivity translates to the regular season -- or if Aiyuk lands in Pittsburgh -- the Steelers will be in good shape. If not, the offense could struggle as defenses look to take away Pickens. -- Brooke Pryor
Daniel Dopp and Liz Loza express the upsides and downsides of having George Pickens on your fantasy roster.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest X factor: Offensive line health
Health up front could be pivotal as left tackle Laremy Tunsil hasn't practiced all camp as he recovers from offseason knee surgery. Tunsil is the Texans' best offensive lineman, but most importantly, he's next to third-year left guard Kenyon Green, who is next to second-year center Juice Scruggs. Tunsil's veteran presence helps anchor the youth, but if Tunsil missed significant time, rookie tackle Blake Fisher would replace him, and the left side of the unit would be extremely young. That could result in the types of issues displayed during training camp being carried over to the season. -- DJ Bien-Aime
Indianapolis Colts
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest X factor: RB Jonathan Taylor's performance
Taylor has been slowed by injuries the past two seasons. But when healthy, the running back is one of the most dangerous playmakers in the NFL. He offered a reminder of what he can be when he returned to form late last season, punctuating 2023 with a 188-yard rushing performance in Week 18 against Houston. In 2021, when he played all 17 games, Taylor had the most prolific rushing season in franchise history, with 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns. Look for Taylor's presence to positively impact the read-option potential of quarterback Anthony Richardson as well. -- Stephen Holder
Jacksonville Jaguars
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest X factor: Offensive line improvement
Four of the five starters from last season's offensive line -- which ranked 29th in pass block win rate (50.5%) and 28th in run block win rate (68.1%) -- are back. All four suffered injuries last season, and the Jaguars are banking on them being a healthier, much-improved unit (with the addition of center Mitch Morse also helping). If not, it'll again be a struggle to run the ball and have any consistent success. -- Michael DiRocco
Tennessee Titans
Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13
Biggest X factor: Offensive line improvement
Adding Bill Callahan as offensive line coach will give any group of linemen a significant boost. The Titans doubled down by boosting the talent on the offensive line with first-round pick JC Latham at left tackle and the addition of free agent center Lloyd Cushenberry III. Last year's unit gave up 64 sacks, which made it extremely difficult to convert third-and-long situations. This year's group should be much improved, leading to more efficiency on offense. -- Turron Davenport
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
Ceiling: 8-9 | Floor: 3-14
Biggest X factor: Depth overall, especially in offensive line
Considering the steady roster churn that has resulted from the Broncos having five head coaches since 2016, it's not surprising depth is lacking in Denver. Add in draft picks who were dealt away from the Russell Wilson and Sean Payton trades, plus salary cap woes from the Wilson release, and it has been hard for the Broncos to establish depth. This is most apparent on the offensive line, especially considering Quinn Bailey -- a player Payton called "lineman six" because he played both guard and tackle as well as tight end in heavy formations -- suffered a season-ending lower leg injury in training camp. -- Jeff Legwold
Kansas City Chiefs
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 9-8
Biggest X factor: Wide receiver play
It's difficult to picture the Chiefs staying atop the AFC and winning a third straight Super Bowl without improved wide receiver play. The Chiefs certainly put a priority on that during the offseason, signing free agent Marquise Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy in the first round, and it could well work out the way they hoped. If not, they would put a lot of pressure on Patrick Mahomes and their defense once again. Would that be enough to win another championship? -- Adam Teicher
Erin Dolan explains why the Kansas City Chiefs could be a good bet to finish the NFL regular season with the most wins in the league.
Las Vegas Raiders
Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest X factor: RB Zamir White
Gone to Green Bay in free agency is former All-Pro Josh Jacobs, so the role of every-down back now falls to White, who has not been in that situation since his final year of college at Georgia. These are huge shoes to fill for a guy who has rushed for a grand total of 521 yards in two seasons, nearly 400 of which came in the Raiders' final four games last season, when Jacobs was out with an injury. Throw in the fact that offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has authored top-2 rushing attacks the past two seasons with the Bears and more than eyes will be on White this season. Added expectations will be too. -- Paul Gutierrez
Los Angeles Chargers
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest X factor: Wide receiver
After possessing one of the league's best wide receiver pairings with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, the Chargers have arguably the league's worst heading into 2024. If a receiver from this group becomes a player defenses have to game-plan to stop, that can change the trajectory of this team. -- Kris Rhim
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9
Biggest X factor: Lack of offseason additions
This offseason's inactivity has the Cowboys banking on a lot of improvement from within with their draft-and-development strategy. It's hard to say the team they'll field in September will be better than the one they fielded this past January. When you add in the uncertain futures of Dak Prescott and of Mike McCarthy and the rest of the coaching staff, it leads to a tenuous feel for a team that has won 36 games over the past three seasons. -- Todd Archer
New York Giants
Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13
Biggest X factor: Brian Daboll running the offense
It's officially Daboll's offense now. He's running the meetings, calling the plays and spending more time with the quarterbacks -- including starter Daniel Jones. Daboll made it a priority to throw the ball down the field all summer in hopes of adding more explosiveness to the offense. The Giants have to be better in that regard. Their offense can't be the same group that averaged fewer than 12 points per game over the first 10 weeks of last season with Malik Nabers, Jalin Hyatt, Darius Slayton and Wan'Dale Robinson, all dynamic receivers. -- Jordan Raanan
Philadelphia Eagles
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9
Biggest X factor: Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore
The Eagles' high-powered attack fell into a funk late last season, contributing to the team's 1-6 collapse and early playoff exit. Offensive coordinator Brian Johnson was fired, and head coach Nick Sirianni handed much of the creative control over to Johnson's replacement, Moore. The former Cowboys and Chargers OC has been hard at work addressing problem areas from last season, including lack of pre-snap motion (the Eagles were last in that category in 2023) and effectiveness against the blitz (Jalen Hurts threw a league-high eight interceptions when facing those pressures). A disconnect in visions between Hurts and Sirianni helped fuel the downturn. It's imperative Moore and Hurts sync up. -- Tim McManus
Washington Commanders
Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13
Biggest X factor: Offensive line production
The Commanders revamped their line, adding three new starters -- center Tyler Biadasz, guard Nick Allegretti and rookie tackle Brandon Coleman. Washington allowed a franchise-record 65 sacks last season, although the playcalling and quarterback Sam Howell were big reasons why. But if the Commanders receive solid play up front, they can provide a tremendous boost to rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and allow new OC Kliff Kingsbury to run a more varied attack. -- John Keim
NFC NORTH
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest X factor: Offensive line play
Caleb Williams had a 69 QBR when pressured in 2022 -- his Heisman Trophy season -- which was the second-highest among Power 5 QBs. Although the No. 1 pick excels operating in and out of structure, the Bears aimed to upgrade his protection this offseason. Tackles Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright and left guard Teven Jenkins are set, but a competition at center and potential switch at right guard due to Nate Davis' health remain question marks the team hopes to have answered soon. One positive sign that flew under the radar in Williams' preseason debut: The quarterback averaged 3.56 seconds to throw against the Bills. That's more time allowed than what former Bears quarterback Justin Fields (3.39 seconds) averaged in 2023. -- Courtney Cronin
Dan Orlovsky expresses his expectations for Caleb Williams after a solid preseason debut for the Chicago Bears.
Detroit Lions
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9
Biggest X factor: Secondary play
After allowing opponents to score a TD on 23% of drives last season (25th in the league), Lions general manager Brad Holmes was aggressive in upgrading the defense -- particularly in the secondary. Detroit selected a defensive back with each of its first two draft picks in the spring -- first-round pick Terrion Arnold and second-round pick Ennis Rakestraw Jr. The Lions hope each can contribute immediately. They also brought in veteran corners Carlton Davis III and Amik Robertson. These upgrades could have a lot of say in how Detroit's season plays out. -- Eric Woodyard
Green Bay Packers
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest X factor: RB Josh Jacobs
Because this is usually on the defense -- and the defense almost never lives up to the challenge, hence the Packers being on their third defensive coordinator in the past six seasons -- maybe it's worth considering that the difference between good and great for this team is whether Jacobs can have the kind of impact Aaron Jones had when healthy. Jacobs' age (26 compared with Jones' 29) and durability were among the reasons Green Bay made the change at running back, but he has big shoes to fill. -- Rob Demovsky
Minnesota Vikings
Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13
Biggest X factor: Aaron Jones
The Vikings signed Jones for two reasons. They wanted to elevate a rushing attack that has compiled the NFL's fifth fewest yards since coach Kevin O'Connell was hired to start the 2022 season. They also hoped Jones could take pressure off whomever the team chooses to replace quarterback Kirk Cousins. That will be veteran Sam Darnold, as rookie J.J. McCarthy will undergo surgery on a torn meniscus in his right knee and miss the season. Vikings running backs have produced 939 receiving yards in the past two seasons, seventh worst in the NFL. Since entering the NFL in 2017, Jones has the ninth-most receptions by a running back in the league (272). -- Kevin Seifert
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10
Biggest X factor: Maximizing a pass rush
Outside of safety Jessie Bates III, the Falcons' defense didn't have any major stars until the acquisition of edge rusher Matthew Judon. The team's pass rush has been a weak spot for nearly a decade, and a lot will be asked of Judon to produce immediately. The team just lost rookie pass rusher Bralen Trice to a season-ending injury. If Atlanta can get pressure on the quarterback with some regularity, it could hit that 12-win mark -- which would be its best since 2012. Judon will likely need some help from someone like Arnold Ebiketie, James Smith-Williams or Lorenzo Carter. If not, well, the Falcons could be staring at a fourth straight 7-10 season. -- Marc Raimondi
Carolina Panthers
Ceiling: 8-9 | Floor: 3-14
Biggest X factor: Will the OL protect Bryce Young
GM Dan Morgan spent the offseason upgrading the interior of an offensive line that allowed 35 of the team's 62 sacks and the wide receiver corps, which was part of an offense that finished last in the NFL in passing yards per game. He spent $150 million on a pair of free agent guards, traded for wide receiver Diontae Johnson and traded into the first round to select receiver Xavier Legette. Although giving Young more pass catchers was important, how well the line protects him will determine how much Young improves in Year 2. -- David Newton
New Orleans Saints
Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest X factor: Right tackle
The Saints are undergoing a major shift at RT after Ryan Ramczyk was declared done for the year with knee problems. They moved Trevor Penning, drafted as a first-round left tackle in 2022, to the right side this year. Penning was benched last October after starting the season at left tackle, and his training camp performance this year hasn't provided reassurances that he's the right fit there. Figuring out the right offensive line combination, particularly at left guard and right tackle, will be critical to the Saints' win total this season. -- Katherine Terrell
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest X factor: New faces on defense
Outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett, inside linebacker Devin White and cornerback Carlton Davis III had all been fixtures on the Bucs' defense the past five or more years, but they are now gone. The writing was on the wall for all three, but did the team fill those spots with the necessary players to not only maintain last year's standard but improve? Bucs fans got a sneak peek at what K.J. Britt, who steps in for White, and Zyon McCollum, who steps in for Davis, could do last year. But there are a lot of unknowns at edge rusher, with Joe Tryon-Shoyinka having yet to take the next step and no good idea of what to expect out of second-round draft pick Chris Braswell. After all, pass rush was a key differentiator in Tampa Bay's playoff loss to the Lions. -- Jenna Laine
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest X factor: WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Harrison's impact will likely be felt immediately, as his presence provides a threat every time he's on the field. He should have a favorable impact on the players around him, including a healthy Kyler Murray. It's possible Harrison will help the stars align into a 10-win season and playoff bid. -- Josh Weinfuss
Los Angeles Rams
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Biggest X factor: Growth of young defense
The Rams have an Aaron Donald-sized hole in their defense this season, their first under defensive coordinator Chris Shula. Los Angeles addressed its pass rush in the draft but also knows that it'll need more than one player to replace the future Hall of Famer's impact on this defense. The Rams return the majority of their offense from a team that made the playoffs last season, but success this season will hinge on how well its young defenders play. -- Sarah Barshop
San Francisco 49ers
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9
Biggest X factor: Contract drama
The 49ers are no strangers to high-stakes contract negotiations or the drama that comes with them. They've successfully navigated them in the past and continued to contend for Super Bowls. But this might be the most difficult situation they've been in yet when it comes to the financials.
Beyond receiver Brandon Aiyuk and tackle Trent Williams not participating in training camp, there's the pending megadeal for quarterback Brock Purdy plus having a number of key starters -- CBs Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir, LB Dre Greenlaw, S Talanoa Hufanga and G Aaron Banks -- set to become unrestricted free agents after the season. The Niners insist those issues won't fester, but it's fair to wonder whether so much uncertainty and jockeying for big bucks will create a problem that will throw a wrench into another deep postseason run. -- Nick Wagoner
Adam Schefter explains to Pat McAfee the twists and turns in Brandon Aiyuk's contract saga and why the 49ers now hope to keep the wide receiver in San Francisco.
Seattle Seahawks
Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12
Biggest X factor: The offensive line
To say this group has boom-or-bust potential might be overstating its ceiling, but that was raised considerably with the recent addition of Connor Williams. He gives Seattle a much-needed talent upgrade at center, where he has shown the ability to be an above-average starter. Williams, though, is coming off a torn ACL from December, and right tackle Abraham Lucas -- arguably Seattle's best offensive lineman as a rookie in 2022 -- has yet to practice this offseason as he recovers from surgery to address what might be a chronic knee injury. Left tackle Charles Cross is the other significant variable. The ninth pick of the 2022 draft has been solid over his first two seasons. Will his excellent start to training camp give way to a breakout in Year 3? -- Brady Henderson