There seem to be few similarities between Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love and San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy. One was a highly in-demand, uber-talented, first-round draft pick in 2020, the heir apparent to a Hall of Famer who made him wait years for his chance to shine. The other was literally the final pick in the 2022 draft, a seemingly underwhelming, forgettable story forced into early action, then leading a Super Bowl run in his second season.
In a fantasy football world in which several quarterbacks -- and several is too many, based on lack of depth at running back and wide receiver -- go in the early rounds of ESPN average live drafts, neither Love nor Purdy seems coveted. Love, the top-scoring fantasy QB over the final eight weeks last season, manages to slip into the top 10 at the position, but barely, and perhaps not for long with hotshot rookies Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams rising due to narrative. Purdy goes much later. Last season, only four quarterbacks outscored Love and Purdy in ESPN leagues.
Love and Purdy, who eventually met in a classic playoff matchup, were hardly flukes last season, and this year they are my favorite targets at quarterback, both excellent values as selections in the middle to late rounds of standard drafts. Seriously, nobody seems to be targeting these fellows. Only Dak Prescott threw more touchdown passes than they did. Only a handful achieved more passing yards. Love is more dynamic and throws far more often, and he carried fantasy managers to championships. Purdy seldom threw, but he is careful with the football and enjoys arguably the top support system in the league. His numbers certainly were there as well.
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The Packers and 49ers each boast considerable talent at running back, in the passing game, on the offensive line, and in coaching and management. There is ample quarterback depth for fantasy purposes (there always is), but still, Love and Purdy are underrated, undervalued and strong late-round investments.
This year's "Do Draft" list strongly mirrors how I have behaved in my myriad mock drafts, and when I say "myriad," I mean it this summer. Thanks to a new staff directive, we have mocked more than ever before (30-plus times? I lost count!), and let me tell you, mock drafting is a good thing. Practice might not make perfect, per se, but it really is the best way to analyze your likes and dislikes. I changed my rankings based on my many in-mock reactions. You think you like this player over that player? Mock a dozen times in a month and see whether it really is true.
I rarely start with quarterback in the annual "Do Draft" list, but I always feel strongly about avoiding quarterbacks early in drafts, and this narrative works. Build with wide receivers mostly, invest wisely at running back and tight end, and Love and Purdy just keep falling in drafts. I think I knew this all along, but the mock drafts reinforce what your gut tells you. Try more than a few strategies, but if you keep coming back to the same old players in the same old spots, then you know. At quarterback, do draft Jordan Love and Brock Purdy.
Quarterbacks
In addition to Love and Purdy, I continue to take chances with first-year options Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams, always in tandem with another passer (usually Purdy). Fantasy managers cannot assume that just because last year's top pick (the Carolina Panthers' Bryce Young) struggled and the No. 2 pick historically shined (the Houston Texans' C.J. Stroud) there will be a repeat. The answers are usually in between. Investing in rookies is rarely my thing, but if one of these fellows is your No. 2 QB, it makes sense over lower-upside veterans, especially the ones on rebuilt Achilles tendons.
The Jacksonville Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence was a borderline QB1 choice for 2023 drafts for good reason, and the underlying numbers show his performance was mostly similar. There was some bad luck, and some injuries he played through (would it have been better had he missed games?), but the Jaguars added playmakers to help him. Lawrence's skills remain. This is a clear case of people forgetting about a talented, young player who could easily return to QB1 status, and he goes unselected in most leagues.
I will not delve too deep into this because it doesn't quite feel right, but I must point out that only nine quarterbacks outscored the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield last season. He wasn't just durable. He surpassed 4,000 passing yards and is a perfectly serviceable No. 2 superflex QB, at far greater value than the Los Angeles Chargers' Justin Herbert, the Los Angeles Rams' Matthew Stafford and especially the Cleveland Browns' Deshaun Watson.
This is for deep leagues or multi-QB ones: I would throw the Seattle Seahawks' Geno Smith (something between 2023 and 2024 makes sense), Carolina Panthers' Bryce Young (there is nothing wrong with him, and he is good enough) and the Pittsburgh Steelers' Justin Fields (runners warrant our attention, and he might play) in there as well.
Running backs
If Gus Edwards can rush for 810 yards and 13 touchdowns for the Baltimore Ravens, what do you think Derrick Henry -- still very much in his prime and utterly motivated -- can do? The Tennessee Titans had nothing going in the passing game. The Ravens certainly do. Ignore the fact that Henry turned 30 or his usual lack of presence in the passing game. This is a potential top-five running back again going at an odd discount.
Joe Mixon is another veteran running back moving on, and he is coming off one of his most productive receiving seasons. He is durable and without competition, and the Texans will keep him mighty busy. Why do fantasy managers convince themselves that older running backs are done before they actually are? Young running backs struggle for performance and/or health as well.
I liked the explosive, efficient Aaron Jones heading into last season with the Packers, and I still do as a Minnesota Viking. Stop comparing quarterback situations from Green Bay to Minnesota as a way of convincing yourself otherwise. In fact, Jones should see more volume than he has in years. Just. Stay. Healthy.
Health is the reason Browns veteran Nick Chubb slips outside the consensus top 100, but we should keep pouncing on that terrific value. Chubb tore ligaments in his left knee in Week 2 of last season, giving him ample time to recover for this season. Reports on his progress are positive. Chubb never seems to catch many passes, but 1,000 rushing yards is definitely in play. What a late-round bargain!
Nobody thinks Miami Dolphins starter (yes, he starts) Raheem Mostert will score another 21 touchdowns, and perhaps he'll even miss a few games, but it is mystifying how he slips outside the first 10 rounds in so many drafts.
OK, so there is something of a theme here. Ezekiel Elliott is not young (for a running back), and his one-year detour in New England wasn't awesome, but who could have thrived in that environment? Elliott returns to the Dallas Cowboys. He knows them, they know him. There is little competition. As with Chubb and Mostert, I see a potential RB2 going at RB3 or RB4 prices. Give me all the shares.
Wide receivers
It is too convenient to recommend a universal first-round fantasy pick, but I do think too many are assuming Vikings star Justin Jefferson cannot return to the very top of the wide receiver heap because the QB situation changed. Jefferson slipped to outside the first round in some mocks. Do not let that happen.
I see the argument for fading Rams sophomore Puka Nacua, but I do not buy it. He was a WR1 even when Cooper Kupp was active. Nacua is a legit star, and Kupp is the one struggling to perform and stay on the field.
I do not hedge bets when it comes to choosing wide receivers from the same team, and I rarely double up. I think Nico Collins will outscore Texans newcomer Stefon Diggs -- and easily. I choose Collins.
When extreme value dictates, however, I choose the Buccaneers' Chris Godwin (five rounds after Mike Evans is wild!), the Kansas City Chiefs' Marquise Brown (probably will outscore the controversial Rashee Rice) and the Seahawks' Tyler Lockett (going undrafted in too many leagues).
Look up how well the Las Vegas Raiders' Jakobi Meyers played last season, how he outscored Garrett Wilson, Terry McLaurin, Zay Flowers, Jaylen Waddle, all Packers WRs and many more, and explain why he goes undrafted in so many leagues. It seems illogical.
I do not recommend the New England Patriots offense, but rookie Ja'Lynn Polk might play a serious role. Panthers rookie Xavier Legette also enters into a situation ripe for potential playing time and positive performance.
Tight ends
I keep getting Buffalo Bills sophomore Dalton Kincaid in drafts, as he feels outside the top tier of options yet well ahead of the tier behind him. He is his own tier. If waiting until the latter rounds, the Texans' Dalton Schultz, Steelers' Pat Freiermuth and Chicago Bears' Cole Kmet make perfect sense, with numbers that might match some back-end TE1 options.