Miami Dolphins RBs Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane finished the 2023 fantasy football season ranked a stunning fourth and fifth, respectively, in ESPN PPR points per game.
Mostert, a 31-year-old journeyman in his second season with the Dolphins, achieved his statistical notoriety by scoring 21 touchdowns, a league-leading 18 of them rushing. Achane, a 21-year-old rookie from Texas A&M, was incredibly efficient, averaging what would have been a modern running back record 7.8 yards per rush, if he had enough attempts to qualify for the rushing title.
Fast-forward to this summer, and few rightfully believe Mostert is going to score touchdowns with this wild frequency again, which is why he often remains available in the 10th round in many ESPN average live drafts, outside the top 100 players. Mostert is old for a running back, durability has hardly been a strength throughout his inconsistent career and narratives tend to drive ADP results.
Meanwhile, Achane may be the fastest, most explosive runner in the sport, and he is more than nine years younger. It may seem obvious to doubt Mostert, and he takes a major hit in drafts, even though only four running backs scored more PPR points last season! As a result, many covet Achane, who takes no such hit and is going as a second-round pick in many leagues, but this all seems a bit too convenient an argument, and wrong.
Therein lies the issue, and the key reason why Achane, awesome as everyone agrees he is, isn't likely to show up on any of my fantasy football teams this season.
The annual and often misunderstood "Do Not Draft" list is not really about players one should not draft. It is about players that should not be drafted at their current value.
There is a big difference.
Mostert and Achane were among the greatest values in 2023 ADP, perhaps among the best this century, but in fantasy sports, do not pay for prior success. Project ahead, but also be realistic. Of course we would prefer investing in Achane first, but the seven- or eight-round gap in their ADP is a bit extreme.
Achane is listed at 5-foot-9, 188 pounds, and there is no precedence for a running back that size dominating in the NFL for multiple seasons. The Dolphins seem aware of this, which is why they kept Achane's volume well in check, permitting him double-digit rushing attempts in only five games.
Achane's bold fantasy numbers are deceiving. He erupted for 51.3 PPR points in the Week 3, shellacking of the then-feeble Broncos, but he scored double-digit PPR points in only seven of 11 games played, scoring just four touchdowns after Week 5. Importantly, Achane missed six games due to injury.
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Another factor is the Dolphins drafted running back Jaylen Wright in the fourth round, after he torched SEC defenses for the past two seasons for Tennessee. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel runs a creative offense predicated on speed (see Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, etc.), and Wright figures to fit in nicely. Do not expect grand volume, but that is the point with this entire backfield. We should not expect grand volume for any of the options, which is why the awesome Achane is too much of a risk so early in drafts.
Here are other players I will likely bypass at their current ADP in standard PPR drafts, for various reasons. Ultimately, it comes down to individual strategy and reasonable value, and a little bit of going with your gut instincts. They matter, too.
Quarterbacks
The Bills' Josh Allen, Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes and Eagles' Jalen Hurts are this year's positional headliners, each going in the first three rounds of ESPN ADP. It is too early. Sure, quarterbacks tend to score the most points, but this is about supply versus demand, and depth simply is not there at running back and wide receiver. Wait on quarterbacks in single quarterback, redraft formats, even the best ones. Rinse and repeat.
The Colts' Anthony Richardson is the most polarizing option at the position, after the four-game flash to his career last season left fantasy managers yearning for more. Richardson is an elite runner and boasts good size (6-foot-4, 244 pounds), but he missed Week 3 with a concussion and then a shoulder injury ended his season before Halloween. Future health is the first issue, but positional depth affords fantasy managers reasonable fill-ins if any quarterback misses time. Still, it feels premature reaching for Richardson in the first five rounds, when more proven options go so much later (Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, etc.).
The Jets' Aaron Rodgers and Falcons' Kirk Cousins are quite older and anything but mobile runners, and they are coming off debilitating Achilles' injuries. They used to be bargains appearing on my annual "Do Draft" list, but if you must choose a backup signal-caller in drafts, I direct you to sensible, wildly underrated 49er Brock Purdy and rookies Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams. Or just wait longer for a backup.
The Browns' Deshaun Watson used to be a fantasy star in Houston. That run of excellence ended four years ago. He has played terribly, and rarely, for Cleveland.
Running backs
Rams star Kyren Williams seemed almost too good to be true last season. Few considered him on draft day, but he scored two touchdowns in Week 1 and then, after missing a month midseason, handled huge volume down the stretch. What is not to like? Well, as with Achane, size is an issue and it does matter (Williams is 5-9, 194). The Rams could easily turn to rookie Blake Corum, and they likely will, to some degree, making Williams a risky RB1 choice. We may not necessarily target highly drafted rookie running backs, but they do have a tendency to wreck value for incumbents.
A new regime in New England figures to only aid proven Rhamondre Stevenson, but the signing of pass-catching option Antonio Gibson does imply it may cap Stevenson's upside in that area. This was an awful offense last season, with nowhere to go but up, but assuming Stevenson is a safe RB2 scares me. I have participated in more than 20 mock drafts -- and really, you should as well, to see what your gut keeps telling you! -- and I just keep avoiding Stevenson and waiting longer for the likes Aaron Jones, D'Andre Swift and Zamir White.
Sure, Jets star Breece Hall recovered beautifully from a torn ACL to become a fantasy star. It does not mean Panthers rookie Jonathon Brooks takes the same path with similar success. Brooks tore a knee in November. As with the Patriots, this is not exactly the best offense, and Chuba Hubbard is competent. Not only is Brooks not a safe flex option (as his ADP would suggest), he may not play until October.
My reaction to the likely timeshares for the Steelers and Titans is to simply avoid them. Perhaps that turns unreasonable in certain or deeper formats, but Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are unreliable, top-100 risks as long as they share touches.
Commanders starter Brian Robinson Jr. -- yes, he still starts -- is underrated. Former Chargers star -- oh yeah, he was once a fantasy monster! -- Austin Ekeler looked done last season. He comes at major discount, but hoping Ekeler catches 50 passes and investing a top-100 pick still is not worth it.
Wide receivers
New Texans acquisition Stefon Diggs is not necessarily done as a top-level producer, despite a real second-half collapse with Buffalo last season. Stuff happened. Josh Allen threw the football elsewhere, or handed it off. Still, since I am all-in on Nico Collins, and I rarely invest in multiple receiving options from the same organization, I bypass Diggs, who comes with baggage. Collins is younger, more efficient and not dealing with joining a new offense. Don't hedge. Choose only one of them.
49ers starter Brandon Aiyuk is not happy, which he has made mighty clear this offseason. It isn't unusual for a veteran wide receiver to demand a new contract, or a trade, and sometimes it all works out. We couldn't possibly bypass all these unhappy players. In this situation, however, with the depth of offensive stars, Aiyuk suddenly is more of a risk. Give me the Deebo Samuel Sr. shares instead.
Avoiding all first-year players is a poor strategy. Be open-minded for we see the occasional rookie emerge every season, and often it is unexpected. Cardinals rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is not a major risk and wasn't a one-year college wonder. His quarterback, offense and coaching all figure to be good. The Giants are different. Malik Nabers is so talented, but burdened in a challenging situation with the quarterback and everything else there. Expecting him to earn WR2 value is quite a reach. If you must invest in a rookie wide receiver, the value for Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey and Chiefs newcomer Xavier Worthy is so much better.
Chiefs sophomore Rashee Rice is facing a possible suspension for off-field behavior. Again, he is not alone there, but all missed games matter, and the Chiefs may not wish to deal with future risk. Same likely goes for Vikings sophomore Jordan Addison.
Tight ends
Jaguars star Evan Engram hauled in 114 mostly short, safe, unimpactful passes last season, but that is just not happening again. Trevor Lawrence must throw downfield for this offense to shine. Engram's previous high was 73 catches for 766 yards. Still good, but not "I gotta have this guy in the first 10 rounds" good. He hasn't scored more than four touchdowns in a season since 2017. It seems unlikely to happen now, too. If you don't get a top tight end, do not reach for Engram.
Nearly everyone seems to love Atlanta's Kyle Pitts this season, which is often a dangerous precursor. Pitts achieved 1,026 receiving yards as a rookie, and in 27 games since then, he has only 1,023 yards. Everyone blames the team's quarterback play, and now Cousins rides in from the north to save his tight end's fantasy value and make him into Tony Gonzalez? Nah, don't buy it, certainly not in Round 7. Six touchdowns in 44 career games cannot be all about quarterback play. Just take Dalton Schultz or Pat Freiermuth in the final rounds. Their numbers may be better anyway.