Expected fantasy points (xFP) strip away player talent and efficiency and focus solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (expected total).
Running back adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position, in-box defenders and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average two-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Here is the 2023 xFP leaderboard for running backs:
xFP & xTD leaderboards 2023 xFP: Running Backs (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Ru Yd Ru TD Rec Re Yd Re TD 1. Christian McCaffrey , SF 324 391 68 16 1089 11 61 515 4 2. Joe Mixon , CIN 298 267 -31 17 1103 12 54 370 3 3. Tony Pollard , DAL 278 223 -56 17 1088 9 53 406 2 4. Rachaad White , TB 269 268 -1 17 1163 6 57 417 2 5. Travis Etienne Jr. , JAC 269 282 14 17 1154 7 56 428 1 6. Bijan Robinson , ATL 260 246 -13 17 945 4 67 492 3 7. Breece Hall , NYJ 254 291 36 17 948 3 74 549 1 8. Alvin Kamara , NO 249 233 -16 13 736 7 69 541 1 9. Kyren Williams , LAR 248 255 7 12 1027 9 36 287 3 10. Jahmyr Gibbs , DET 244 242 -1 15 792 7 57 448 2 11. Austin Ekeler , LAC 237 185 -52 14 759 8 56 417 2 12. Saquon Barkley , NYG 233 223 -9 14 1059 6 42 345 2 13. James Cook , BUF 226 233 7 17 1044 5 40 343 2 14. Isiah Pacheco , KC 224 214 -10 14 895 7 43 294 2 15. Josh Jacobs , LV 224 181 -43 13 966 7 42 329 1 16. Javonte Williams , DEN 220 179 -40 16 908 6 47 334 2 17. Derrick Henry , TEN 218 247 28 17 1108 9 25 187 0 18. Raheem Mostert , MIA 218 268 50 15 905 12 24 183 2 19. D'Andre Swift , PHI 216 199 -17 16 985 7 36 292 1 20. Jerome Ford , CLE 209 211 3 17 887 3 48 374 2 21. Kenneth Walker III , SEA 205 199 -6 15 939 9 31 218 0 22. Jaylen Warren , PIT 200 196 -3 17 669 3 60 420 1 23. Najee Harris , PIT 199 196 -4 17 1049 6 28 207 1 24. Chuba Hubbard , CAR 198 183 -16 17 979 6 35 245 0 25. Ezekiel Elliott , NE 197 175 -22 17 788 3 51 383 1 26. David Montgomery , DET 191 207 16 14 902 10 20 148 0 27. Alexander Mattison , MIN 191 133 -58 16 762 5 35 267 3 28. Devin Singletary , HOU 184 167 -17 17 892 5 30 245 1 29. James Conner , ARI 181 202 20 13 879 6 25 190 1 30. Brian Robinson Jr. , WAS 171 198 27 15 766 5 32 233 1 31. Zack Moss , IND 169 170 0 14 778 6 28 209 1 32. Tyjae Spears , TEN 166 154 -12 17 445 2 54 425 2 33. Rhamondre Stevenson , NE 163 146 -18 12 663 3 42 322 1 34. Gus Edwards , BAL 159 187 28 17 779 10 9 78 0 35. Aaron Jones , GB 153 135 -18 11 589 4 34 242 1 36. AJ Dillon , GB 151 118 -34 15 735 6 21 162 0 37. Jonathan Taylor , IND 151 156 5 10 732 6 18 134 1 38. Tyler Allgeier , ATL 137 138 1 17 760 4 17 128 0 39. Miles Sanders , CAR 134 88 -46 16 551 3 33 250 0 40. De'Von Achane , MIA 131 191 59 11 460 3 28 235 2 41. Zach Charbonnet , SEA 128 106 -21 16 463 4 32 223 0 42. Kareem Hunt , CLE 125 119 -7 15 545 6 17 119 0 43. Antonio Gibson , WAS 124 127 4 16 293 1 45 332 1 44. Samaje Perine , DEN 117 121 4 17 228 2 44 318 1 45. Khalil Herbert , CHI 117 113 -4 12 531 2 22 173 2 46. Justice Hill , BAL 116 109 -7 16 364 3 29 227 1 47. Dameon Pierce , HOU 115 83 -32 14 574 5 13 100 0 48. Roschon Johnson , CHI 115 102 -12 15 329 2 35 248 1 49. Latavius Murray , BUF 104 83 -21 16 323 6 17 125 1 50. Kenneth Gainwell , PHI 102 97 -5 16 353 2 27 211 0 51. Jaleel McLaughlin , DEN 99 106 7 17 345 1 29 202 1 52. Ty Chandler , MIN 99 101 2 17 442 2 21 146 1 53. Rico Dowdle , DAL 96 92 -4 16 377 3 19 140 1 54. D'Onta Foreman , CHI 92 91 -1 9 451 4 11 89 0 55. Zamir White , LV 88 74 -14 17 436 3 14 106 0 56. Clyde Edwards-Helaire , KC 85 70 -15 15 314 2 18 121 2 57. Jamaal Williams , NO 84 61 -23 13 419 2 16 113 0 58. Joshua Kelley , LAC 80 62 -18 17 468 2 9 68 0 59. Emari Demercado , ARI 74 73 -1 14 258 1 22 170 1 60. Jerick McKinnon , KC 70 84 14 12 97 0 26 196 1 61. Elijah Mitchell , SF 67 48 -20 11 286 4 6 48 0 62. Dalvin Cook , NYJ 62 40 -22 15 288 1 16 113 0 63. Matt Breida , NYG 58 47 -12 17 244 1 16 128 0 64. Darrell Henderson Jr. , LAR 57 44 -14 4 197 2 11 82 1 65. Michael Carter , ARI 31 33 2 6 100 0 9 63 1 65. Michael Carter , NYJ 25 26 0 9 39 0 11 91 0 66. Cordarrelle Patterson , ATL 56 37 -19 14 218 2 9 74 1 67. Cam Akers , LAR 14 9 -5 1 89 1 0 0 0 67. Cam Akers , MIN 40 38 -3 6 165 1 10 71 0 68. Royce Freeman , LAR 55 46 -8 14 333 3 1 6 0 69. Jeff Wilson Jr. , MIA 52 41 -11 10 188 1 13 107 0 70. Salvon Ahmed , MIA 48 43 -6 8 101 1 16 126 1 71. Pierre Strong Jr. , CLE 48 43 -6 17 274 1 6 46 0 72. Chase Edmonds , TB 48 40 -8 13 221 0 13 91 0 73. Chase Brown , CIN 45 54 8 12 191 0 13 86 0 74. Ameer Abdullah , LV 42 41 -1 17 72 0 17 145 0 75. D'Ernest Johnson , JAC 42 35 -7 17 191 1 9 78 0 76. Patrick Taylor , GB 41 30 -11 11 131 1 12 80 0 77. Kendre Miller , NO 40 43 3 8 180 1 9 69 0 78. Keaton Mitchell , BAL 40 70 30 8 207 0 8 56 0 79. Kyle Juszczyk , SF 39 39 0 17 14 1 12 120 1 80. Tank Bigsby , JAC 38 23 -15 17 204 2 3 21 0 81. Andrew Beck , HOU 37 39 2 15 13 1 10 79 1 82. Chris Rodriguez Jr. , WAS 37 38 1 13 212 2 2 11 0 83. Craig Reynolds , DET 34 30 -5 17 167 1 5 38 0 84. Darrynton Evans , CHI 33 28 -5 5 127 1 7 57 1 84. Darrynton Evans , MIA 1 2 1 2 8 0 0 0 0 85. Tony Jones Jr. , ARI 8 7 -1 3 21 0 3 23 0 85. Tony Jones Jr. , NO 25 25 0 4 86 1 4 29 0 86. Ty Johnson , BUF 29 32 4 10 127 0 6 41 0 87. Isaiah Spiller , LAC 29 19 -10 9 164 1 5 29 0 88. Jordan Mason , SF 27 45 18 17 158 1 3 28 0 89. Israel Abanikanda , NYJ 26 16 -9 6 99 0 8 60 0 90. Alec Ingold , MIA 25 25 0 17 8 0 11 95 0 91. Trey Sermon , IND 25 20 -4 14 144 0 4 35 0 92. Tyler Goodson , IND 23 18 -5 6 50 0 7 50 1 93. Ronnie Rivers , LAR 23 20 -3 9 142 0 4 29 0 94. Deuce Vaughn , DAL 23 15 -8 7 94 1 6 40 0 95. La'Mical Perine , KC 22 14 -8 5 100 1 4 28 0 96. Trayveon Williams , CIN 22 15 -7 17 68 0 8 48 0 97. Nick Chubb , CLE 22 23 1 2 120 0 3 26 0 98. Boston Scott , PHI 22 16 -6 15 93 1 4 41 0 99. Damien Harris , BUF 21 19 -2 6 95 1 1 11 0 100. Keaontay Ingram , ARI 21 14 -7 8 149 0 3 18 0 101. DeeJay Dallas , SEA 21 8 -12 17 44 0 8 59 0 102. Ke'Shawn Vaughn , TB 19 6 -13 6 101 1 3 22 0 103. Deon Jackson , CLE 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 103. Deon Jackson , IND 19 4 -15 2 53 1 5 34 0 103. Deon Jackson , NYG 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 104. Eric Gray , NYG 19 13 -6 13 75 0 5 40 0 105. Melvin Gordon III , BAL 18 20 1 4 101 1 2 20 0 106. Raheem Blackshear , CAR 17 17 0 12 64 0 5 38 0 107. Mike Boone , HOU 16 13 -2 9 23 0 7 53 0 108. Emanuel Wilson , GB 14 15 0 7 63 0 4 27 0 109. Dare Ogunbowale , HOU 14 10 -4 12 35 0 5 49 0 110. C.J. Ham , MIN 13 10 -3 17 5 0 7 54 0 111. Gary Brightwell , NYG 13 12 -2 7 39 0 5 39 0 112. Kevin Harris , NE 13 21 9 4 69 0 2 18 0 113. J.K. Dobbins , BAL 12 12 0 1 37 0 2 17 0 114. Patrick Ricard , BAL 12 16 4 17 0 0 4 37 1 115. Khari Blasingame , CHI 12 6 -6 16 28 0 5 33 0 116. Hunter Luepke , DAL 12 13 1 17 24 1 3 22 0 117. Leonard Fournette , BUF 10 4 -6 2 49 1 0 0 0 118. Sean Tucker , TB 10 5 -5 11 66 0 2 12 0 119. Chris Brooks , MIA 10 11 1 9 82 0 0 0 0 120. Nick Bawden , NYJ 9 12 2 16 4 1 3 23 0 121. Michael Burton , DEN 9 7 -2 17 28 0 2 16 0 122. Rashaad Penny , PHI 6 5 -2 3 45 0 1 5 0 123. Damien Williams , ARI 6 8 1 3 48 0 1 5 0 124. Jordan Mims , NO 6 0 -6 2 0 0 1 12 0 125. Kenyan Drake , BAL 5 3 -2 2 5 0 3 18 0 125. Kenyan Drake , GB 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 126. Jashaun Corbin , NYG 5 4 -1 6 3 0 2 17 0 127. Elijah Dotson , LAC 5 4 -1 4 19 0 2 11 0
