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          Fantasy baseball advice for Saturday: Go with Falter vs. struggling Mariners

          Bailey Falter is a solid streaming candidate against the scuffling Mariners offense. Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
          • Todd Zola, FantasyAug 16, 2024, 03:00 PM ET
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Five is the New Four

          So far this season, 34% of games started have come with four days of rest. There was a time well over half of all pitchers took the hill every fifth day.

          In the current landscape, 44% of games are started with five days of rest. Part of the reason is the off days added to the schedule a few years ago. Major league managers are also extending extra rest to monitor workloads or try to protect young arms. The two go together since the extra off days minimize the need for a sixth starter.

          The Los Angeles Dodgers treatment of Tyler Glasnow is the perfect example. Heading into Saturday's action, Glasnow has taken the hill 22 times, but just once with fewer than five days between outings.

          Glasnow has already set career highs in starts and innings as he has tossed 134 frames, 14 more than last season. How the Dodgers handle Glasnow down the stretch revolves around whether they can maintain control of the NL West, as well as how much they value playoff seeding, in terms of byes and potential postseason matchups.

          Even with the extra rest, Glasnow has been in a rut, posting a 5.29 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over his last six outings. Glasnow's xFIP over that span is 3.65, so he's pitched into some misfortune, However, he's also posted a 23.9% strikeout rate, which would be a career best for many hurlers, but it's well below his career 31.1% level.

          Glasnow is entering uncharted waters in terms of workload, so anticipating him to maintain his career marks is optimistic, though the recent drop seems steeper than expected.

          Some analysts are advising to deal Glasnow, especially in head-to-head formats. Personally, that feels like overthinking. Everyone knows the Dodgers need to balance keeping Glasnow primed for the playoffs with worrying about workload-induced health concerns, so no one is going to send back a strong package. Glasnow is not going to be shut down, and if he is limited to one start per week, so long as he tosses five innings, he remains a top fantasy asset.

          Everything else you need to know for Saturday

          • Saturday's action gets underway at 1:05 p.m. ET in the Steel City with the Pittsburgh Pirates hosting the Seattle Mariners. Everyone in the Mariners' rotation can register a quality start whenever they take the mound. Their offense, on the other hand, is another story. The club was recently swept in a three-game series by the Detroit Tigers, being outscored 20-4, though 15 of those tallies game in the opening game. The struggles of the Mariners offense lands Pirates SP Bailey Falter (23% rostered in ESPN leagues) as a streaming option. Falter isn't dominant, but he boasts a below average walk rate and keeps the ball in the yard.

          • The slate's top-ranked streamer is Philadelphia Philles SP Cristopher Sanchez (32.3% rostered). Sanchez is mired in a second-half rut, having yielded at least six earned runs in two of his last three starts. Since the break, Sanchez has posted a 6.11 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. He's only fanned 17 in those 28 stanzas, but he's issued just six free passes while allowing just two long balls in that span. A .379 BABIP has victimized Sanchez over this five-game span. Sanchez will face a Washington Nationals lineup that doesn't strike out much against southpaws, but they sport the sixth lowest wOBA versus lefties, so Sanchez has a chance to right the ship if he enjoys better batted ball fortune.

          • New York Mets SP Luis Severino (22.3% rostered) is in a good spot, lining up for a home date with the Miami Marlins. Severino is in a rut, but facing the offense with the fourth lowest wOBA versus right-handers is an ideal panacea. The Marlins also punch out at an above average clip.

          • San Francisco Giants SP Hayden Birdsong (6.9% rostered) is next among potential spot starters for his road date with the Oakland Athletics. Birdsong started his career with a 2.97 ERA over his first six efforts, but the mark has ballooned to 5.40 after a pair of struggles. Home runs were the culprit, which makes Saturday a risky proposition with the Athletics 10th highest home run rate facing righties. Even so, their wOBA versus right-handers is the 11th worst in the league, fueled by the third highest strikeout rate in this scenario.

          Starting pitcher rankings for Saturday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Saturday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Saturday