The world's longest offseason is almost over, and what might be the most anticipated college football season in ages is upon us. We've got new super megaconferences to sort through and an expanded 12-team CFP with all its inclusiveness to prepare for. According to ESPN Analytics, 47% of the teams have at least a 5% chance of reaching the playoff. But first: SP+ rankings and projections!
Below are my final SP+ projections for the 2024 college football season. As always, these are based on three primary factors: returning production (final rankings for which you can find at the bottom of this piece), recent recruiting and recent history. How good have you been recently? Whom do you have coming back? How good are the players replacing those you don't have coming back? That's loosely what we ask when we're setting expectations for a team; it's also what these projections attempt to do objectively.
As always: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.
Here are the full rankings:
SP+ vs. conventional wisdom
The preseason polls don't differ much from the top of the SP+ projections, and frankly, that's disappointing. It's a lot more fun to rail against outrageous, irrational bowl bumps and whatnot, but the top five in the AP and coaches polls are the same as the SP+ top five (albeit in a slightly different order), and no team in the AP top 11 is more than two spots away from its SP+ ranking.
There are still a few differences worth noting, even if the top teams are basically the same.
The teams the pollsters like more
Half the Big 12's contenders. Some poll voters are likely to be taking potential end-of-season results into account, and since SP+ is an at-the-moment power rating, that creates disparities when it comes to how to treat the champion of a conference like the Big 12. Utah, the preseason voting favorite, ranks 12th in the AP poll and 13th in the coaches poll and is projected to have the 11th-best average win total per SP+ (9.2), but the Utes still rank 18th in the actual SP+ rankings. It's a similar story for Arizona (21st in the AP poll, 28th in SP+) and Kansas (22nd and 33rd, respectively), though Oklahoma State (17th and 20th) and Kansas State (18th and 17th) have smaller differences.
NC State. Dave Doeren's Wolfpack are 24th in the AP poll and 22nd in the coaches poll, but they rank just 29th in SP+. That's not a huge disparity -- again, the disagreements aren't enormous (or fun) this year -- but it's something worth noting.
The teams SP+ likes more
The SEC's second-tier (as always). Since SP+ is a power rating, it can still rank Oklahoma 13th while projecting the Sooners to win an average of only 7.6 games, just as it can rank Auburn (7.1 wins) 25th, Kentucky (7.0) 22nd and poor Florida (5.4) 23rd. But if your goal is to rank teams by their potential success levels, you probably aren't putting any of these teams in your top 25. AP voters certainly didn't: Kentucky earned just three points in the AP poll (the equivalent of ranking 40th), Auburn earned two (41st) and Florida earned none.
Penn State. James Franklin's Nittany Lions are 21-5 over the past two seasons -- 0-4 against top-five caliber Michigan and Ohio State teams and 21-1 against everyone else. Those losses contribute to a general perception of underachievement for PSU, but SP+ has still ranked them sixth or better after four of the past six full seasons and projects them sixth to start 2024. Voters didn't have them too far away, but they were still eighth in the AP poll and ninth in the coaches poll.
Conference power rankings and title odds
SP+ is a team ranking, but it can tell us a lot about conference expectations, too. It can also drop pretty big hints about the effects of both recent realignment and the transfer portal. Let's walk through some of the averages and projections for each conference heading into the fall.
1. SEC
Average rating: 16.7 (up 5.0, from 11.7 in 2023)
Average offensive rating: 37.2 (first)
Average defensive rating: 20.5 (second)
Average returning production percentage: 63.7% (third)
Conference title odds: Georgia 29.7%, Texas 15.2%, Alabama 14.3%, Ole Miss 9.6%, LSU 8.0%, Missouri 7.1%, Texas A&M 4.6%, Oklahoma 3.8%, Tennessee 3.7%, Kentucky 1.2%, Florida 1.1%, Auburn 1.0%, South Carolina 0.5%, Arkansas 0.3%, Mississippi State <0.1%, Vanderbilt <0.1%
As one would expect, adding two top-13 teams did wonders for the SEC's projected average, as did the fact that quite a few different SEC programs have top-10 potential. In all, the SEC currently boasts a ridiculous nine of the top 15 projected teams. While at least one or two of those teams will undoubtedly underachieve, there are four other top-40 teams that could overachieve at the same time. Georgia starts atop the pile for pretty obvious reasons, but it appears the SEC is as deep as it always says it is this season.
2. Big Ten
Average rating: 10.0 (up 3.9, from 6.1 in 2023)
Average offensive rating: 27.7 (fourth)
Average defensive rating: 17.7 (first)
Average returning production percentage: 62.9% (fourth)
Conference title odds: Ohio State 29.7%, Oregon 25.2%, Penn State 19.0%, Michigan 15.0%, USC 2.7%, Wisconsin 2.3%, Iowa 2.1%, Washington 1.1%, Nebraska 0.7%, UCLA 0.7%, Maryland 0.5%, Rutgers 0.4%, Minnesota 0.3%, Indiana 0.1%, Illinois 0.1%, Purdue <0.1%, Michigan State <0.1%, Northwestern <0.1%
The Big Ten has four of the top seven teams -- including Oregon, one of its four newcomers -- but it also has only four of the top 20. Penn State crept ahead of Michigan in these final numbers, but both teams should still be very good. The major question is whether someone outside the big four can overachieve and play at a top 15 level or so.
3. Big 12
Average rating: 6.6 (down 1.1, from 5.5 in 2023)
Average offensive rating: 32.4 (second)
Average defensive rating: 25.8 (fourth)
Average returning production percentage: 67.6% (first)
Conference title odds: Kansas State 21.0%, Utah 20.1%, Oklahoma State 11.4%, Arizona 10.9%, Iowa State 7.7%, Kansas 6.4%, West Virginia 5.2%, TCU 4.9%, Texas Tech 3.8%, UCF 3.1%, Baylor 1.5%, Colorado 1.5%, Cincinnati 0.9%, BYU 0.6%, Arizona State 0.6%, Houston 0.4%
Now to the conference that makes up for its lack of elite teams with an absolute bucketful of potential contenders. The combination of quarterback potential and manageable schedules gives K-State and Utah an initial advantage, but 10 of 16 teams have at least a 3% chance of winning the title, and 10 are in the returning production top 50 below. Lots of experience here.
4. ACC
Average rating: 5.9 (up 3.0, from 2.9 in 2023)
Average offensive rating: 30.4 (third)
Average defensive rating: 24.5 (third)
Average returning production percentage: 67.0% (second)
Conference title odds: Florida State 23.2%, Clemson 20.6%, Miami 13.3%, Louisville 9.3%, SMU 9.2%, NC State 8.2%, Virginia Tech 5.4%, North Carolina 4.1%, Duke 1.4%, California 1.4%, Syracuse 0.8%, Georgia Tech 0.7%, Pitt 0.7%, Boston College 0.5%, Wake Forest 0.4%, Virginia 0.4%, Stanford 0.4%
The ACC boasts two pretty proven entities, and SP+ likes Miami to play at a top-20ish level, but the three teams combine for only a 57.1% chance of winning the league; that leaves plenty of room for an upstart, be it newcomer SMU, returning production champion Virginia Tech or the popular-in-the-polls NC State.
5. Sun Belt
Average rating: -8.2 (down 5.0, from -3.2 in 2023)
Average offensive rating: 25.5 (fifth)
Average defensive rating: 33.7 (eighth)
Average returning production percentage: 51.1% (ninth)
Conference title odds: JMU 22.0%, App State 17.9%, Troy 14.1%, Louisiana 11.4%, Texas State 6.4%, South Alabama 5.7%, Coastal Carolina 5.7%, Marshall 4.3%, Arkansas State 4.0%, Georgia Southern 3.2%, Georgia State 2.5%, ODU 1.9%, Southern Miss 0.9%, ULM 0.1%
As with the Big 12, 10 Sun Belt teams have at least a 3% chance of taking home the crown, but I'm curious how much the conference's parity hurts its CFP chances. This is the strongest Group of 5 conference on average, but SP+ gives only one team a greater than 4% chance of finishing the regular season 11-1 or better, and each of the other four conferences has clearer title favorites.
6. Mountain West
Average rating: -8.7 (down 2.3, from -6.4 in 2023)
Average offensive rating: 24.0 (seventh)
Average defensive rating: 32.7 (sixth)
Average returning production percentage: 56.2% (sixth)
Conference title odds: Boise State 43.5%, Fresno State 18.7%, UNLV 7.9%, Air Force 7.4%, Wyoming 5.7%, SDSU 4.1%, Colorado State 3.8%, Utah State 2.8%, SJSU 2.7%, Hawaii 2.4%, Nevada 0.7%, New Mexico 0.3%
It's a "Boise State versus the field" situation out west. SP+ doesn't like UNLV nearly as much as I expected (mainly because the Rebels really only overachieved on offense last season), and it doesn't account for Fresno State's or Utah State's summer head-coaching changes. But BSU is the defending champ and one of only two MWC teams ranked higher than 50th in returning production.
7. AAC
Average rating: -9.2 (down 1.4, from -7.8 in 2023)
Average offensive rating: 24.4 (sixth)
Average defensive rating: 33.6 (seventh)
Average returning production percentage: 58.1% (fifth)
Conference title odds: Memphis 33.6%, UTSA 20.4%, Tulane 15.4%, USF 6.6%, ECU 4.6%, Army 4.0%, Rice 3.3%, UAB 2.7%, FAU 2.6%, North Texas 2.2%, Navy 2.1%, Tulsa 1.9%, Charlotte 0.4%, Temple 0.2%
Memphis and Boise State start 2024 as the highest-ranked G5 teams, though Memphis' road to a conference title might feature a bit more resistance. The AAC has quite a bit of dead weight, but the Tigers will have to face the No. 2 and No. 3 conference favorites (UTSA and Tulane) on the road just to get to the conference title game.
8. Conference USA
Average rating: -12.5 (down 4.6, from -7.9 in 2023)
Average offensive rating: 21.3 (eighth)
Average defensive rating: 33.8 (ninth)
Average returning production percentage: 54.2% (eighth)
Conference title odds: Liberty 47.5%, WKU 24.7%, Jacksonville State 8.6%, MTSU 4.7%, Sam Houston 4.5%, NMSU 2.9%, Louisiana Tech 2.8%, UTEP 2.2%, FIU 1.9%
Liberty vs. the field. With last year's runner-up New Mexico State almost completely starting over, WKU is the only team starting within shouting distance of the defending champs (and Fiesta Bowl participants). And as with last season, Liberty is looking at maybe the weakest schedule in the country; the Flames could once again give the CFP committee a tricky choice to make if they go 13-0.
9. MAC
Average rating: -13.9 (down 2.6, from -11.3 in 2023)
Average offensive rating: 15.2 (ninth)
Average defensive rating: 29.1 (fifth)
Average returning production percentage: 54.9% (seventh)
Conference title odds: Miami (Ohio) 25.9%, Toledo 17.1%, NIU 10.3%, BGSU 10.0%, Ohio 8.9%, WMU 8.5%, EMU 4.6%, Buffalo 3.9%, CMU 3.8%, Ball State 3.6%, Kent State 2.0%, Akron 1.4%
Miami probably doesn't have enough offense to get to the finish line at 12-1 or so, but the Redhawks' defense is strong enough to make them MAC favorites, and their schedule -- at Northwestern, Cincinnati, at Notre Dame in the first three games -- offers them a chance at multiple power-conference wins.
Final 2024 returning production rankings
Throughout the offseason, I post updates of my returning production rankings, which (a) are based on percentages that correlate most strongly to year-to-year improvement and regression (more info here) and (b) include the production of incoming transfers. Here are the final numbers that will be used for 2024:
Nine teams hit the 80% mark or higher, which correlates strongly with team improvement. (With Iowa State and Oklahoma State near the top, that's great news if you're looking for the wildest possible Big 12 race.) But the low percentages at the bottom correlate even more strongly with regression, and Air Force enters 2024 in a danger zone of sorts.
Here are the 10 teams with the lowest returning production rates of the past 10 years, along with the changes they suffered in both record and SP+ rating:
2022 Nevada (22%) -- fell from 8-5 to 2-10 (-23.9 points in SP+)
2015 Kansas (25%) -- fell from 3-9 to 0-12 (-11.8 points)
2017 Air Force (27%) -- fell from 10-3 to 5-7 (-12.9 points)
2022 Hawai'i (27%) -- fell from 6-7 to 3-10 (-16.8 points)
2024 Air Force (28%)
2023 Kent State (29%) - fell from 5-7 to 1-11 (-13.1 points)
2023 UAB (29%) - fell from 5-7 to 4-8 (-8.2 points)
2020 Air Force (30%) -- fell from 11-2 to 3-3 (-3.8 points)
2023 ECU (32%) - fell from 8-5 to 2-10 (-15.1 points)
2019 UAB (32%) -- fell from 11-3 to 9-5 (-3.8 points)
The other nine teams in this list saw their win totals fall by an average of 4.2 games and saw their SP+ ratings fall by an average of 12.2 points. Thanks to a lack of redshirting, Air Force is used to dealing with more turnover than most teams, but the two Air Force teams that suffered this level of turnover indeed saw their product suffer. They should still easily compete for a bowl bid, but after five straight years between 35th and 53rd in SP+, the Falcons might struggle quite a bit more than usual in 2024.