You can't fully predict the future, especially in an endeavor as volatile as the NFL, but that doesn't mean we can't try.
Every preseason, we try to look past the upcoming season and into the following offseason -- and specifically at quarterback situations that are either unsettled or could become unsettled by that time. You may think your team is all set at QB for the foreseeable future, but you might be wrong for any number of reasons. And depending on the way 2024 goes, you might end up being happy about that.
So here's a look at 11 quarterback situations that either currently are or could eventually be in flux at some point over the next six months, along with some predictions -- the most likely outcome and a long shot possibility -- for the way they might turn out. These are situations we believe are worth addressing because of their potential for long-term uncertainty. If your team drafted a quarterback in the first round this year and is not the Falcons (more on that question mark in a bit), it is exempt from this exercise because even if, say, Drake Maye isn't the Patriots' starter right now, we all know he will be eventually.
And yes, we of course had to start with the one spot that everyone is already talking about.
Jump to:
ATL | CAR | DAL | LV | LAR | NO
NYG | NYJ | PIT | SEA | TEN
Dallas Cowboys
Current starter: Dak Prescott
Signed through: 2024
If you have paid attention to any NFL coverage this offseason, you're well aware of Prescott's situation. His contract automatically voids after the 2024 season, and it includes a provision that prohibits the Cowboys from using the franchise or transition tags on him at that point. They'll incur a dead money salary cap hit of $40.138 million in 2025 if they don't extend his contract before the new league year opens in March. And they're well aware that if that happens, there's a chance he will sign somewhere else in free agency, leaving them without an obvious answer at the position and hamstrung with a $40.138 million dead money hit for a player who's not on their team.
It's a mess, and it's compounded by the fact that the team still hasn't reached agreement with star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and is likely looking at starting a big-money negotiation with star pass rusher Micah Parsons next offseason.
The other quarterbacks on the Cowboys' roster are longtime backup Cooper Rush and former 49ers first-round pick Trey Lance, who threw 41 passes in the team's first preseason game Sunday. Lance is still only 24 years old, and stranger things have happened than him turning out to be an acceptable Prescott replacement. But the fact is neither the Cowboys nor anyone else has seen enough of Lance to know whether that will be the case, and as long as Prescott remains without an extension, uncertainty dominates this situation.
The team and Prescott's agent have been in conversations in recent weeks. Prescott could sign a new deal at any time, but it also remains possible that nothing gets done before or during the season, which brings the prospect of free agency into play. And if Prescott, who finished second in MVP voting last season after throwing 36 touchdown passes, hits the open market as an unrestricted free agent, he's likely to command a price way beyond what the Cowboys want to pay.
Most likely outcome: I may be going down with the ship here, but I still don't think Prescott and the Cowboys will part ways. I believe they agree on an extension at some point between now and March. Maybe it's a shorter deal, like a three-year extension that lets him hit free agency again while still in his prime. Maybe the Cowboys get their preferred structure and secure Prescott for the rest of his career. There are a number of ways this can go, but the Cowboys know how valuable Prescott is to them and don't want to be out there looking for a new quarterback. I think they figure this out.
Long shot outcome: Prescott has another huge season, the two sides can't agree on an extension before March and the Raiders -- not the Cowboys -- make Prescott the first $60 million-per-year quarterback in free agency.
New York Giants
Current starter: Daniel Jones
Signed through: 2026
This is a gigantic year for Jones in New York. The Giants tried to move up in the draft for Jones' replacement, but once they were unable to do that, they instead used their first-round pick on Malik Nabers, who has the chance to be the most dynamic receiver Jones has ever had. Jones is coming off a torn ACL that ended his 2023 season early, but he's set to play in their preseason game this weekend and should be healthy to start the regular season.
While the four-year deal he signed in the spring of 2023 technically runs through 2026, it includes no guaranteed money beyond the $36 million he's getting this season. The Giants would absorb a manageable $22.21 million in dead money on their 2025 cap if they release Jones after this season.
There is one catch, though, and it's a doozy. Of Jones' $30 million salary in 2025, $23 million is guaranteed against injury -- which means he gets that money if he can't pass a physical next March. And of that $23 million, $12 million converts to a full guarantee on the fifth day of the 2025 league year. So the Giants will have to decide by mid-March whether they want to keep Jones around, and they'll have to get him to next March healthy if they want the freedom to cut him without owing him that $23 million.
The "First Take" crew discusses Daniel Jones' chances of remaining with the Giants beyond the 2024 season.
Jones has missed multiple games because of injury in four of his five seasons. This has all led some around the league to wonder whether the Giants might keep Jones off the field in the latter part of the campaign if the season is going poorly to avoid a scenario in which he gets injured and they're on the hook for that $23 million.
Most likely outcome: The Giants' offense muddles through another mediocre season, Jones again misses some time with some sort of health issue, and New York gets to the spring with a decision to make about whether to stick it out with Jones for another year or try to find a replacement (which, again, is something it definitely tried to do prior to this year's draft). But the Giants aren't bad enough to land a super-high draft pick, leaving them to assess free agent options. Maybe they get into the Dak Prescott mix if he makes it to the market, or maybe they bring Sam Darnold home to New York after Darnold has a big season in Minnesota and eventually gives way to J.J. McCarthy.
Long shot outcome: It turns out that 2023 -- not 2022 -- was the aberration, and Jones and coach Brian Daboll lead the Giants back to the playoffs. Jones plays so well that they consider it a no-brainer to keep him around for 2025 at a mere $30 million, and the discussion around this situation astoundingly turns to whether and when it makes sense to give him another extension.
New Orleans Saints
Current starter: Derek Carr
Signed through: 2026
Carr signed with the Saints last year after being released by the Raiders and finished a middling 16th in QBR in his first season in New Orleans (56.5). He played through injuries and the Saints were kind of a mess, so it's not like one so-so season should make them just give up on him. That said, Carr is 33 years old, and the Saints' coaching staff probably enters this season on thin ice. They will need to exceed expectations this year if they're going to be sitting there in March 100% certain that Carr is the guy moving forward.
Carr and his agent did a nice job with the contract they got with the Saints. He's scheduled to earn $40 million in 2025. Of that, $10 million is already guaranteed in the form of a roster bonus. The other $30 million becomes fully guaranteed if he's still on the roster on the fifth day of the 2025 league year. So the Saints will have to decide by mid-March whether they want to pay Carr $40 million in his age-34 season or move on to other options. Cutting him before then would result in a $50.132 million dead money cap charge (including the $10 million roster bonus they'd have to pay him in cash). So Carr is in a solid spot regardless of what the Saints decide, and with a good season, he could be in position to help dictate their decision.
Should things completely fall apart for the Saints in 2024, sweeping changes would be possible, and those could certainly include the quarterback position. But Carr isn't a bad player, and there are reasons to think this season could go better for the Saints' offense (new coordinator, good receivers, Alvin Kamara in the backfield) if they get the O-line figured out. The Saints belong on this list but aren't a sure thing to be switching QBs in the spring of 2025.
Most likely outcome: The Saints are good enough to stay on the fringe of wild-card contention all season but likely won't get there -- and they'd be picking in the middle of the first round. People in the building like Carr, and $40 million isn't an absurd number for a competent starting quarterback these days. So the most likely outcome is that the Saints stay in standings purgatory and decide Carr is better than their other options, especially since he's under contract and they don't have to give up anything to get him.
Long shot outcome: The Saints end up as the worst team in the league, an interim coach gives Spencer Rattler a look late in the season, Carr ends up on the market again next spring, and New Orleans has to decide between Rattler and someone like Colorado's Shedeur Sanders or Georgia's Carson Beck via the draft.
Atlanta Falcons
Current starter: Kirk Cousins
Signed through: 2027
Alright, this is a fun one. The Falcons went out right away in free agency and signed Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract with $90 million guaranteed at signing. Then, a little more than a month later, they used the eighth pick in the draft to select Washington's Michael Penix Jr. -- who also plays quarterback. This surprised and irked Cousins and has created a situation in which the clock has started on Atlanta's prized free agent acquisition before he has even played a game for the Falcons. Penix is 24 and played 48 games in his injury-plagued, six-year college career. He's either going to be ready to play soon, or he was a bad pick at No. 8.
Cousins turns 36 next week, so he's closer to the end of his career than the beginning. But he was playing as well as any quarterback in the league last season when he tore his right Achilles tendon and still has reason to believe he can play at a high level and accomplish more before his career is over. The contract the Falcons gave him indicates that they believe it, too. But if they deem Penix ready to be their starter in 2025, Cousins could very well be on the trading block in March. He's not really cuttable because they'd have paid him $90 million for one season in that case. But if he plays well this year, he would be very tradeable.
The acquiring team in a hypothetical 2025 Cousins trade would owe him $117.5 million over the remaining three years of his contract -- a perfectly acceptable $39.17 million per year -- of which just $37.5 million would be guaranteed. The Falcons would have paid him a $50 million signing bonus and $12.5 million in 2024 salary -- so $62.5 million for one year -- which is a little bit wild. But obviously their plans have changed from when Cousins signed.
Dan Orlovsky discusses why he's excited to watch how Kirk Cousins will impact Drake London and the Atlanta Falcons this season.
Penix, by the way, got a $13.5 million signing bonus as part of his four-year, $22.9 million rookie contract. So say what you want about the Falcons and their shifting strategy (and we have), but you can't say they didn't throw money at their biggest problem area.
Most likely outcome: Cousins plays well, the Falcons contend for (and possibly win) their division title, and Penix has to ride the bench for a second year before taking over in 2026 -- when the guaranteed salary portion of Cousins' contract is behind them.
Long shot outcome: Cousins struggles, the Falcons play poorly, and the team decides to get a look at Penix before this season is over. In that scenario, Cousins would likely be on the trading block next spring and playing elsewhere after just one season in Atlanta, paving the way for Penix to take over going forward.
Los Angeles Rams
Current starter: Matthew Stafford
Signed through: 2026
The Rams had to sweeten Stafford's contract to get him into training camp this year, but while he got a raise for 2024, the new deal doesn't really tie them to him beyond this coming season. They'll end up paying him $36 million this year, all fully guaranteed, and they'll owe him a fully guaranteed $4 million roster bonus for 2025. That $4 million is all they'd have to pay him next year if they cut him or he decides to move on. The dead money hit would be an additional $45.3 million, but this wouldn't be an acrimonious situation -- and if the sides decided to part ways after this season, he'd likely work with them on an adjustment that would reduce that.
Stafford is 36 years old but was one of the best quarterbacks in the league last season, finishing sixth in QBR (63.5) and throwing 24 TD passes. If he can stay healthy, the Rams' offense should hum this season, and there's no reason they shouldn't be in the playoffs.
Most likely outcome: The Rams play well, Stafford plays well and the two parties decide when the season is over to run it back for another year. The Rams probably have to make another contract adjustment, since Stafford is only scheduled to make $27 million in 2025, but they obviously can figure that out. After all, they just did the same thing in restructuring his deal this summer.
Long shot outcome: The Rams' defense, for the second year in a row, exceeds expectations. The offense is one of the best in the league, and Stafford and coach Sean McVay win their second Super Bowl together. Stafford decides to retire on top, and the Rams trade for Kirk Cousins to attempt a run at a repeat.
Seattle Seahawks
Current starter: Geno Smith
Signed through: 2025
Smith's contract continues to be a steal for the Seahawks, who will pay a total of $22.3 million this year for the services of a quarterback who ranks 11th in the league in QBR over the past two seasons (61.3). He will turn 34 in October, but he's having an excellent late-career renaissance as the Seahawks' starter since Russell Wilson left town. The contract allows Seattle to continue to evaluate Smith without committing long term. With a new coaching staff in place in Seattle for the first time in 14 years, it's possible Smith is still auditioning -- even though he has proven to be a more-than-capable starter at this point in his career.
Smith is scheduled to earn $25 million in 2025. None of that is currently guaranteed, but he gets a $10 million roster bonus if he's still on the team on the fifth day of the 2025 league year, which is a device intended to force the team to make a decision on him. The Seahawks could move on from Smith next spring owing him no more money and taking on an easily manageable $13.5 million in dead money.
The backup is Sam Howell, whom the Seahawks acquired from Washington for a third-round pick this offseason. They think Howell has promise, but he's no current threat to Smith's starting role. The question is what Seattle wants to do at quarterback when this year is over, and obviously a lot of that depends on how this season goes.
Most likely outcome: The Seahawks have a good team and contend for a playoff spot in Mike Macdonald's first year as their coach. The offense, which has a lot of skill in place around Smith, is the strength of the team, while Macdonald gets his defense installed. And when the season ends, the Seahawks decide their best option is to do another short-term extension with Smith.
Long shot outcome: Smith struggles, whether with health or performance, meaning Howell gets a shot. He plays well enough to convince the Seahawks they don't need to find a young quarterback in next year's draft. And Seattle moves on from Smith and installs Howell as the 2025 starter.
New York Jets
Current starter: Aaron Rodgers
Signed through: 2025
Rodgers is back with the Jets after missing all but the first four plays of his first season with them because of an Achilles tear. Hopes are high. Vibes are good.
But Rodgers is also 40 years old, an age after which exactly one quarterback in NFL history proved he could play at a championship level. And regardless of how this season goes for the Jets, it's clear that Rodgers is on a year-to-year evaluation plan when it comes to how much longer he intends to play. He's signed through 2025, and should he retire after 2024, the Jets would have to deal with a large dead money hit. But that doesn't matter since he has shown a willingness to adjust his contract to make life easier for them. It's all about this year for Rodgers and the Jets. They'll figure out the rest once this season is over.
The backup is veteran Tyrod Taylor, who's not likely the long-term answer for when Rodgers decides to leave. Zach Wilson is gone. Fifth-round rookie Jordan Travis is a very intriguing prospect and was a shrewd pick for a team in this situation, but he's working his way back from his own season-ending injury, and the Jets' eventual plans for him are largely theoretical at this point.
Most likely outcome: The range of potential outcomes here is absolutely cavernous, but we'll go with this one: Rodgers -- who is 40 years old, didn't play last year and didn't play particularly well the season before that -- struggles, whether it's with health, performance, patience or all of the above. Taylor has to play a handful of games, and while he can keep the Jets afloat much better than their 2023 backups did, it's not enough to do a ton of damage in the tough AFC East. The Jets make the playoffs as a wild-card team but lose in the first round. Rodgers drags out his retirement decision but eventually decides to come back and try again at 41.
Chris "Mad Dog" Russo goes head-to-head with the "First Take" crew tackling NFL topics like whether Aaron Rodgers is a legitimate MVP candidate.
Long shot outcome: Rodgers stays healthy and plays like his old MVP self. The Jets win the Super Bowl for the second time in their history. Rodgers goes out on top the way Peyton Manning and John Elway did, cementing his legacy as one of the all-time greats. The Jets have to figure out a new quarterback plan, but who really cares when they're sweeping up ticker tape in the Canyon of Heroes? (But since we need to make a prediction, let's say the Jets make a play for Kirk Cousins so they can try to keep things rolling.)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Current starter: Russell Wilson or Justin Fields
Signed through: 2024 -- yes, both of them
Lauded all spring for their shrewdness in signing Wilson to a minimum-salary deal and acquiring Fields for a conditional sixth-round pick, the Steelers arrived at training camp only to discover that ... uh-oh, maybe there were good reasons these guys were so cheap and easy to acquire?
Wilson got hurt on the first day of camp, opening an opportunity for Fields to work with the first-team offense and make up ground in the competition to be the Steelers' 2024 starting quarterback. Fields has had his moments in practice, but some of the frustrating old habits that led the Bears to give up on him remain, and they were on full display in a sloppy preseason debut last weekend.
The Steelers are paying Wilson $1.21 million and Fields $1.62 million this year, so there's no compelling financial reason to play one over the other. Both are eligible for unrestricted free agency after the season, so there's nothing stopping the Steelers from letting both go and looking for a new solution at quarterback next spring. They like their defense and their run game a lot, so they really only need competent quarterback play out of one of these guys. And you know coach Mike Tomlin will win at least as many games as his roster's talent level dictates, so you have to believe the Steelers will find a way to stay in contention all season and not end up with a super-high draft pick.
Most likely outcome: Wilson starts Week 1 by default (assuming he's healthy), but the same issues that frustrated three different coaching staffs over the past three seasons frustrate this one too, and the Steelers eventually decide to give Fields a look. Fields delivers some fun days but still shows too many weaknesses to convince the Steelers he's their guy. Pittsburgh somehow secures the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoff field and loses to the Chiefs in the first round. And it brings in ... I don't know, let's say Daniel Jones. Or Mac Jones. Some Jones of some sort, seeing if it can get it right this time.
Long shot outcome: A light goes on inside of Fields, his consistency starts to match up with his talent, and he looks like the obvious choice over Wilson. The Steelers push for and maybe even win the AFC North title, advancing deep into the playoffs. And Fields signs a long-term extension with the team next spring.
The "Get Up" crew break down what Mike Tomlin is looking for from Justin Fields and Russell Wilson as the starting quarterback competition heats up for the Steelers.
Tennessee Titans
Current starter: Will Levis
Signed through: 2026
Mayonnaise spokesmodel and former Kentucky quarterback Levis was the Titans' second-round pick in 2023 and started nine games as a rookie, but he gets a new coach for his second NFL season. Brian Callahan, whose work as offensive coordinator in Cincinnati included shepherding Joe Burrow into the NFL and developing Jake Browning into a competent injury replacement, is now in charge of figuring out whether Levis is the long-term answer for the Titans at quarterback.
The Titans have done what they could to build a solid roster around Levis and give him a chance to prove himself. They added Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to a wide receiver corps that already had DeAndre Hopkins. They signed running back Tony Pollard to pair with Tyjae Spears. They beefed up the offensive line in free agency and the draft. They beefed up the defense with acquisitions such as cornerback L'Jarius Sneed. Most will probably pick the Titans to finish third or fourth in their division, but it's not like they tore the whole thing down to the studs to start a rebuild. Levis has some help; it's up to him to prove he's the guy.
Most likely outcome: Callahan is really good at his job, Levis shows development and promise in his second season, and the Titans go into 2025 believing they have a young franchise quarterback.
Long shot outcome: Levis can't do the job, leaving the Titans to finish with the worst record in the league and draft his replacement with the first pick in 2025 (Carson Beck? Shedeur Sanders? Someone else?)
Las Vegas Raiders
Current starter: Aidan O'Connell or Gardner Minshew
Signed through: 2026 (O'Connell) and 2025 (Minshew)
The Raiders lost this year's game of first-round-quarterback musical chairs and weren't able to draft their franchise QB of the future. They signed the veteran Minshew, who nearly led the Colts to the playoffs last season after rookie starter Anthony Richardson got hurt, and threw him into an offseason competition with O'Connell, who finished the 2023 season as the Raiders' starter under interim coach Antonio Pierce. Pierce landed the full-time job and recently told ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, "We're probably not going to be, to be honest, a juggernaut offense." So expectations here aren't exactly super high.
Minshew has a relatively small $3.16 million salary guarantee for 2025, so the Raiders could get a rid of him if they want or keep him and pay him $12 million to be a bridge or backup. O'Connell was a fourth-round pick in 2023 and is under contract for around $1 million per year through 2026. There's nothing substantial attaching the Raiders to either of these signal-callers.
Most likely outcome: O'Connell opens the season as the starter, but Minshew eventually looks like the better option and starts the bulk of the games. The Raiders play excellent defense but struggle to score and finish at the bottom of the AFC West. They draft a quarterback with a high pick in the 2025 draft or trade for someone like Kirk Cousins.
Long shot outcome: Minshew Magic leads the Raiders to a surprise playoff berth. They aren't picking high enough in the draft to find their answer, but it doesn't matter because they're all-in on signing Dak Prescott in free agency no matter how much it costs.
Carolina Panthers
Current starter: Bryce Young
Signed through: 2026, with a team option for 2027
I hate to do this to the kid after only one bad season (29th in QBR at 33.4 and an 11-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio). But if the notoriously patient Steelers can give up on Kenny Pickett after just two years, are we really supposed to believe David Tepper's team wouldn't consider moving on from Young after two?
The top pick in the 2023 draft, Young had a brutally disappointing rookie season that saw coach Frank Reich fired after just 11 games, GM Scott Fitterer fired after the season and the quarterback who was picked one pick later (Houston's C.J. Stroud) win Offensive Rookie of the Year and advance to the second round of the AFC playoffs. In comes new coach Dave Canales, fresh off his work in Tampa Bay rejuvenating Baker Mayfield's career and tasked by the league's most impatient owner with making Young look like a guy who deserved to be taken first overall. Good luck, Dave!
Most likely outcome: Young shows enough improvement under Canales that the Panthers aren't looking for another option next spring. They don't contend, but they decide to use their high-first-round pick on a defensive building block rather than another quarterback. Young continues his development in 2025.
Long shot outcome: Young struggles terribly, to the point where Andy Dalton has to start a bunch of games. And by the end of the season, Tepper is ordering his front office to find a replacement. Burned once before at the top of the draft, the Panthers instead make a big free agent play for Prescott, who signs elsewhere and leaves the Panthers to sift through options such as Minshew and Pickett.