As many WNBA players showcased their talents in Paris at the Olympics -- most notably the stars on the gold-medal-winning United States squad -- the league took a breather for the past four weeks. But now that the Olympians have returned stateside, it's time to turn our attention to the stretch run of the 2024 WNBA regular season.
With a little less than six weeks before the playoffs begin, here's a look at the major storylines, teams and players to watch as the remainder of the 40-game season resumes, with help of advanced metrics such as ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) and my own Estimated RAPTOR player ratings, which use each player's box score stats and on-court impact to determine how much they have been worth to their team's net rating while in the game.
Can the Las Vegas Aces win their third consecutive title?
Key stat: The Aces (16-8) rank fifth in the WNBA in net rating this season.
Coming off two straight titles and arguably the greatest season in WNBA history -- even if Cynthia Cooper's Houston Comets might have something to say about that -- the Aces could be excused for pacing themselves in pursuit of a three-peat. They've been lagging in their standard of excellence and those of the league's top contenders.
Despite the outstanding play of A'ja Wilson, who has been the best player in the league this season -- and the overwhelming favorite for MVP, unlike last year -- Las Vegas has seen its regular-season net rating drop from a league-best plus-15.6 points per 100 possessions to only plus-7.0, which ranks fifth. Perhaps it was unrealistic to expect the Aces to repeat their 2023 showing, which was tied with the 2019 Washington Mystics for the third best in WNBA single-season history (trailing only the 1998 and 2000 Comets).
But after declines on both sides of the ball, Las Vegas brings up the rear of the five-team group that has been thoroughly dominating the league this season (along with the New York Liberty, Connecticut Sun, Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm).
The playoffs are, of course, a different beast than the regular season, and the Aces are a stunning 16-3 in the postseason over the previous two years. No team has been able to beat them when it matters, and they are still among the biggest favorites to win it all; ESPN BET has them at a league-best +155 for the title, and the BPI projections give them a 38% chance to win.
Those are strong odds, and they'll have every chance with Wilson playing at an unbelievable level, but there's also a good chance Las Vegas gets caught up in our next topic (see below).
Keep an eye on: The Aces have seven remaining games against the Liberty, Sun, Storm and Lynx -- the four teams ahead of them in net rating -- starting with Saturday's Finals rematch against New York.
Watch out for the Liberty's revenge tour
Key stat: New York has a league-best plus-11.6 net rating, thanks in part to an improved defense.
Checking in ahead of the Aces in the BPI odds are the Liberty at 38.8%, making them statistical favorites to win the title.
New York, which plays at the Los Angeles Sparks on Thursday (9 p.m. ET on ESPN), has started the season 21-4, including wins in 17 of its past 19 contests -- remember, the Commissioner's Cup final doesn't count toward the official standings -- running at a pace just two games shy of Las Vegas' record-tying sprint at the start of last season.
One of the best signs for New York is that, while Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart continue to hold things down on offense, it has also gotten deeper contributions from the rest of the roster, even with Courtney Vandersloot missing nine games and unsung star Betnijah Laney-Hamilton hitting the injured list as well. Additionally, the Liberty have improved their defense from 3.2 points per 100 possessions better than the league average last year to 4.8 points per 100 now, thanks to the league's lowest rate of fouls per 100 possessions.
The final factor is the motivating power of old-fashioned revenge. After appearing to be on a collision course with the Aces all of last season -- even outplaying the champs for stretches of the regular season, on top of a convincing head-to-head win for the Commissioner's Cup -- the Liberty fell into an 0-2 Finals hole and couldn't climb out.
With nearly a 40% probability of facing Las Vegas in the Finals again (per BPI), New York will relish the chance for payback, with the second-easiest remaining schedule (according to the average Elo ratings of their opponents) -- and a tie for the second-most rest days per game in the post-Olympic period, after having the fewest before the break.
All eyes on rookies Clark, Reese (as always)
Key stat: Indiana Fever rookie Caitlin Clark is the second-leading rookie 3-point shooter (2.7 3-pointers per game) in WNBA history and Chicago Sky rookie Angel Reese is the leading rookie rebounder (11.9 rebounds per game).
The biggest storyline of this WNBA season has been its rookie class, headlined by Clark and Reese. Clark is already the league's most popular star, boosting the WNBA's profile in practically every dimension. (Fever games make up all 11 of the league's most-watched telecasts this season, and 14 of the top 16.)
Clark is a runaway betting favorite (-2000, per ESPN BET odds) to win Rookie of the Year honors. I've written before about how the advanced statistics don't quite consider her candidacy an open-and-shut case, and she ranks second behind Reese in RAPTOR wins added per game -- she's on pace for 2.2 victories this season, versus 2.7 for Reese -- because she trails in offensive efficiency, rebounding and defense.
However, Clark could be primed for a big stretch run to conclude her debut season, one which will probably see her challenge Reese for No. 1 in the metrics.
Because she was not selected for Team USA at the Olympics, Clark will be well-rested after an early stretch where the Fever had, at one point, played 11 games in 20 days to start the season. Furthermore, Indiana goes from facing the league's second-hardest schedule (according to average opponent Elo rating, adjusted for home court) before the break to the league's easiest set of opponents over the remainder of the season, giving the Fever by far the most favorable change in schedule difficulty after the break versus before.
And we know that, although rookie guards face a steep learning curve in the WNBA, they tend to improve quickly once they are accustomed to the size, speed and physicality of the pro game. Clark will be a much better player at the end of her rookie season than she was at the beginning.
And that's extra important because Clark's and Reese's teams are in good shape to make the playoffs.
According to BPI, the Fever have an 86.5% chance to get in, while the Sky are right behind at 83.6%. There's little chance they face each other once there, as the two teams will almost certainly earn the No. 7 and 8 seeds and will face long odds to beat the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in Round 1, much less go all the way to the Finals. (Chicago and Indiana each have identical 1.8% Finals probabilities in the BPI model.)
It should still be exciting to see both young stars debut on the playoff stage and good for the league to have them around a bit longer.
Keep an eye on: Clark needs to average 21.4 points over the rest of the season to tie Seimone Augustus' 2006 rookie record for points; Reese needs to average just 7.0 rebounds (well below her season average of 11.9) to reach Tina Charles' rookie rebounding record from 2010.
Big turnarounds for Storm and Lynx
Key stat: The Storm (plus-8.3 points per 100 possessions) and Lynx (plus-7.7) are tracking for two of the six biggest year-over-year net rating improvements in WNBA history.
Going into 2024, we knew the Aces and Liberty would be forces. We could also fairly surmise that the Sun -- who lost to the Liberty in the 2023 semifinals, but who also went to the 2022 Finals -- would be championship hopefuls as well.
But the rest of the contending picture were scrambled. The Dallas Wings were missing Satou Sabally, their best player in 2023, after a February injury; the Mystics were looking at another season without Elena Delle Donne. And among teams with the worst net ratings in 2023, the Storm, Fever, Lynx and Phoenix Mercury were among the biggest offseason movers and shakers. Out of that group, Seattle (plus-15.4 net rating improvement versus 2023) and Minnesota (plus-13.8 improvement) saw the biggest turnarounds, suddenly emerging to rank among the league's best teams. (Incredibly, both have better net ratings than the defending champion Aces!)
The Storm were perhaps the more predictable of the improvements, having been solid in 2022 and snagging Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike on the free agent market; both have produced elite seasons in the past, and they're on a collective pace to create 11.6 RAPTOR wins this season. Add in Jewell Loyd's steady scoring and big improvements from Ezi Magbegor and Jordan Horston, and Seattle has improved by 6.9 points per 100 possessions on offense (relative to league average) and 8.4 points per 100 on defense. That puts the Storm on pace to be the most improved team in WNBA history.
The Lynx were a little harder to predict. Their third-seeded 2021 season was driven in large part by former league MVP, Finals MVP and Defensive Player of the Year Sylvia Fowles, who retired after the 2022 campaign, and they had the league's fourth-worst points per game margin over the previous two seasons.
The additions of Natisha Hiedeman, Alanna Smith, Courtney Williams and Cecilia Zandalasini figured to help improve Minnesota's standing here in 2024, but Williams and Hiedeman had below-average RAPTOR ratings in 2023 and Zandalasini hadn't played in the WNBA since 2018.
Incredibly, though, Minnesota is in the same ballpark as Seattle on the all-time glow-up list. In addition to Smith's contribution (she's tracking for a personal-best plus-4.0 RAPTOR despite playing for her fourth team in four years) and a career year from Kayla McBride, one big reason for the Lynx's turnaround is the dominating defense of forward Napheesa Collier.
Collier's defensive RAPTOR of plus-4.2 currently ranks 16th-best all-time among players with at least 500 minutes in a WNBA season, and the Lynx have come along for the ride. Their league-best 95.1 defensive rating, 8.1 points per 100 possessions better than league average, is on pace to be the sixth-best defensive season in league history.
Keep an eye on: The Storm and Lynx are both a half-game ahead of the Aces for the No. 3 and 4 seeds coming out of the break. Seattle and Minnesota also play more difficult opponents after the break -- though the Aces have the biggest increase in schedule strength of any team -- so it's going to be a fight to see who will be among the top seeded playoff squads.
Wilson carving her place in league history
Key stat: Wilson is on pace for the most points (27.2) and rebounds (12.0) per game and the highest player efficiency rating (35.6) in WNBA history.
Wilson is putting up a ridiculously dominant individual performance, building on a run of seasons that was already among history's greatest.
Wilson leads the WNBA in scoring by four points per game over No. 2 Kahleah Copper (Mercury) -- a margin that, if it holds, will be the largest for a points leader over the runner-up since Cynthia Cooper beat Lisa Leslie by 6.3 points per game in the league's inaugural season of 1997.
Wilson also leads the league in rebounds per game, albeit by a slimmer margin over Reese; Wilson would be the fourth player to pull off that double -- joining Tina Charles, Lauren Jackson and Chamique Holdsclaw -- and the first since Charles in 2016.
That's in addition to her advanced metrics: a 60.2 true shooting percentage, a near career-high 14.4% assist rate, personal bests for block rate (6.9%) and steal rate (2.7%) and a sky-high plus-8.4 estimated RAPTOR. Using our favorite method of blending multiple advanced metrics into a single consensus measure of player value, Wilson is on pace for 13.0 wins added per 40 games, which would be the fourth-highest single-season mark in WNBA history, trailing only Sheryl Swoopes in 2000 (13.8) and her teammate Cooper in 1997 (13.3) and 1998 (13.2).
Keep an eye on: Assuming she plays all of Las Vegas' remaining games, Wilson must average more than 22.4 points (a threshold she cleared last season and is well ahead of this year) in order to break Diana Taurasi's single-season record of 25.3 points from 2006.
UConn star Paige Bueckers is in disbelief after swishing a shot from half court without looking at the hoop.
Where will UConn's Paige Bueckers land in the WNBA?
Key stat: The Los Angeles Sparks have the highest draft projection (2.0) of any team for 2025, per BPI.
While the 2025 draft class is nowhere near as ballyhooed as 2024, there is at least one star player to be had for the team that wins the lottery: UConn's Paige Bueckers, whose resurgent 2023-24 season reestablished her status as a prospect on the order of stars such as Reese, Cameron Brink and Kamilla Cardoso. (It also recalled the fact that, once upon a time, even Clark ranked behind Bueckers in ESPN's recruiting rankings as a high school senior).
Things are looking tight in the battle for Bueckers at the WNBA's bottom of the standings. The Mystics and Wings share the league's worst record at 6-19, and Dallas will see the league's second-biggest increase in schedule difficulty down the stretch (trailing only the Aces). Washington will likely get two cracks at the lottery because it owns Atlanta's pick as well.
But it's the Sparks (6-18) who have the best odds of landing the No. 1 selection, according to BPI, because the WNBA uses a two-year window for determining lottery chances. Since the Mercury will most likely make the playoffs, the Sparks have the next-worst record since 2023.
So the Wings and Mystics will have to start dropping more games -- or in Washington's case, hope the Atlanta Dream do as well -- to gain ground on the Sparks in the race for the No. 1 pick. And then there's one more giant complicating factor: Where the 2025 expansion Golden State Valkyries pick, which the league hasn't announced yet. Precedent from previous expansions such as the Dream in 2008 and the Sky in 2006 saw the new teams removed from the lottery process, but that was also nearly 20 years ago.
Until then, pay attention to Los Angeles, Dallas and Washington down the stretch.
Keep an eye on: If the Mystics maintain their current .240 winning percentage, the Sparks will need to go 5-11 or worse over the rest of the regular season to clinch the best odds for the No. 1 pick.