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NBA summer league is often a tiny blip in the grand scheme of a player's career (or the fate of a draft class), but the NBA's annual gathering in Las Vegas again served as a showcase for incoming rookies, who debuted their talents in front of the league over an 11-day span.
During the course of the 76-game schedule in Las Vegas, the environment for evaluation was imperfect. It was a chance for players to leave an impression, however, and a forum where a team's front office could begin the work of understanding how each player fits.
In the wake of the 2024 NBA draft -- one that was scrutinized by all 30 teams and went down to draft night with little palpable consensus for the top picks, including the Atlanta Hawks drafting Zaccharie Risacher at No. 1 -- we took the pulse of the league, feeling out early opinions after the majority of the rookie class took the floor in Vegas.
ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo polled 20 NBA executives and scouts, asking for their predictions and opinions on the league's incoming rookies. And we scoped out the executives' thoughts on how they liked the NBA's first two-day draft and which player will be the No. 1 pick in 2025 in what is already shaping up to be a talent-rich draft.
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Rookie of the Year | Biggest reach | Best pick
Two-day draft format | No. 1 pick in 2025
Who will have the better NBA career: Risacher or Sarr?
Zaccharie Risacher, Hawks: 15 votes
Alex Sarr, Wizards: 5
Risacher was the resounding favorite here, pulling in 15 of the 20 votes. There's a good deal of optimism surrounding his trajectory, which contributed to his draft selection at No. 1. Executives are confident in his defensive ability, court feel and room to grow on offense, giving him a higher perceived floor than Sarr, who at this stage, and considering his uneven summer league performance, requires a bit more faith in his long-term projection.
"They were asking [Sarr] to do too much [in Las Vegas] and giving him freedom he shouldn't have, but I'm bullish on his outlook long-term overall," one voter said, making the case for Sarr's future. "He's got phenomenal physical tools and NBA All-Defensive Team ability. His ballhandling, passing and shooting gives him a good framework to build off offensively. He's going to be really good."
It's worth noting that there's likely a degree of recency bias tilted toward Risacher following Sarr's summer league showing -- including a forgettable 0-for-15 performance. That means little in the scope of things, but there's also an understanding that Sarr is simply further away from being a plus contributor no matter which NBA team had picked him.
Many executives think Risacher is much closer to helping a team win.
"[Risacher's] baseline is outstanding already with what he brings defensively and with his shooting and feel," one voter said. "The NBA is a feel league now and he's always a step ahead of the play on both ends. He'll continue to grow playing out of ball screens and making reads because he can really pass and he's super smart. His body is going to get bigger and that will unlock a lot of things for him."
Which rookie will prove to be the draft's best pick?
Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets: 7 votes
Donovan Clingan, Portland Trail Blazers: 3
Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs: 2
Dalton Knecht, Los Angeles Lakers: 2
Bub Carrington, Washington Wizards: 2
Nikola Topic, Oklahoma City Thunder: 1
Rob Dillingham, Minnesota Timberwolves: 1
Zaccharie Risacher, Hawks: 1
One voter preferred not to answer
On the heels of a breakout showing at summer league, Sheppard (the Rockets' pick at No. 3) took home the most votes, with "best pick" loosely defined as the strongest intersection of value and fit. There's a good deal of optimism around the league surrounding Sheppard's future, and the prevailing thought is that he might be the next Kentucky Wildcats guard to fully blossom upon his arrival in the NBA.
"Sheppard is going to help Houston right away, and I think he has a chance to be an All-Star down the road," one high-ranking Eastern Conference executive said.
Sheppard stood out in Las Vegas, looking comfortable as the Rockets' full-time point guard (after splitting duties off the bench in college) and averaging 20 points and 5.3 assists in his four games. The buzz in Las Vegas and optimism around his game was reflected in the voting.
Coming in second in our polling was Clingan, who slid to pick No. 7 with the Trail Blazers in part because of the way the board fell. Several teams passed on the draft's top rim-protecting center to address other needs.
"I thought [Clingan] was a steal on draft night at 7, but the things he did defensively in summer league were unreal with the impact he made," a different voter offered. "Now they have him shooting trail and pick-and-pop 3s. If he starts making those consistently, that's a game-changer with the way he can pass and protect the rim."
Which pick was the draft's biggest reach?
Ron Holland II, Detroit Pistons: 4 votes
AJ Johnson, Milwaukee Bucks: 4
Tidjane Salaun, Charlotte Hornets: 3
Rob Dillingham, Timberwolves: 2
Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies: 2
Alex Sarr, Wizards: 2
Zaccharie Risacher, Hawks: 1
Pacome Dadiet, New York Knicks: 1
One voter preferred not to answer
The Pistons made the first surprise selection of the draft with Holland at No. 5, a pick that raised some eyebrows around the league because of his questionable roster fit as a below-average shooter on a team that sorely needed perimeter shooting. Detroit's selection, the first under new general manager Trajan Langdon, was a swing on talent above all, which led rival execs to wonder if larger-scale changes to the Pistons' young roster are coming.
"I feel bad for Cade Cunningham," one voter explained. "They've been rebuilding for years even though they never planned on it, and this pick signals they might need to blow up the roster and start over again. I just don't see how [Holland] plays with Ausar Thompson, Jaden Ivey and all their other young guys. That situation is a mess. Even when Holland was scoring in Vegas, it was so ugly to watch."
The Bucks' selection at No. 23 of 19-year-old Johnson, a player who was not widely viewed as a first-round caliber prospect, also led to some confusion over Milwaukee's direction -- as pointed out by several executives. Johnson has always shown interesting flashes as a ball handler with untapped scoring and playmaking ability, but he isn't expected to help the Bucks contend this season.
"I didn't understand [the Bucks'] draft at all," another voter said. "You've got Giannis [Antetokounmpo] and Dame [Lillard] in their primes, and you take two guys [Johnson and Tyler Smith] who are two years away from being good G League players. [Terrence] Shannon, Baylor Scheierman in the first and Tyler Kolek and Johnny Furphy in the second were right there and could play a role right away. Sometimes we overthink this thing and [that] seems to be what happened."
Which rookie will turn out to be the biggest draft steal?
Bub Carrington, Wizards: 5 votes
Kel'el Ware, Miami Heat: 3
Terrence Shannon Jr., Timberwolves: 3
Matas Buzelis, Chicago Bulls: 2
Kyle Filipowski, Utah Jazz: 2
Dalton Knecht, Lakers: 1
Jared McCain, Philadelphia 76ers: 1
Jamal Shead, Toronto Raptors: 1
Cam Spencer, Grizzlies: 1
One voter preferred not to answer
Many around the league are bullish on the long-term prospects for Carrington, who turned 19 last week and whom the Wizards maneuvered into the 14th pick to select. He had a solid showing at summer league and looked very comfortable, particularly for his age, appearing to be a strong development bet for Washington.
"[Carrington] has the size, quickness and game to be an All-Star," one Western Conference executive said. "I see some [Tyrese] Maxey in the way he plays."
"I think he will turn out to be the best pick that Washington made in this draft," another voter offered. (The Wizards also selected Alex Sarr at No. 2 and Kyshawn George at No. 24.)
Both Ware (No. 15) and Shannon (No. 27) had strong showings in Las Vegas.
Ware was a pleasant surprise, helping lead the Heat to the summer league title and performing like one of the top bigs at the event. He has continued to assuage concerns about his consistency and competitive motor, and landed in a strong situation with the Heat, who will develop him as a long-term answer at center next to Bam Adebayo.
"It's undeniable what Ware can do skill-wise," one voter said. "Based on summer league and what he might become, he has to be considered one of the better picks."
Shannon's explosiveness and defensive playmaking stood out in Las Vegas, with his first two games in particular leaving a good impression. He scored 25 points against New Orleans and 19 against Indiana and recorded multiple blocks in both games. His slide to the 27th pick could give Minnesota a useful bench contributor next season.
Who's your NBA Rookie of the Year pick?
Reed Sheppard, Rockets: 7 votes
Zach Edey, Grizzlies: 4
Stephon Castle, Spurs: 3
Donovan Clingan, Trail Blazers: 2
Zaccharie Risacher, Hawks: 1
Ron Holland II, Pistons: 1
Dalton Knecht, Lakers: 1
Tristan da Silva, Orlando Magic: 1
Sheppard again garnered the popular vote. He was likely also a beneficiary of summer league bias, but there's an increasing notion that the Rockets will have to find him the level of playing time necessary to contend for NBA Rookie of the Year.
The next-most popular pick was Edey, a polarizing prospect who landed in a situation in Memphis that will require him to contribute heavily. His proponents said they believed his experience and outlier physical profile would give him a leg up toward a productive rookie season.
"I was at the Utah Summer League and was so impressed by how much [Edey's] game translates," one voter said. "He's in incredible shape and is going to be such a weapon in pick-and-roll with NBA spacing with the way he catches and finishes. He's way more athletic than people realize, and his sheer will is going to get him a bunch of 20-plus-10 outings before New Year's, is my prediction. There's not really another true center on the Grizzlies roster to compete with him for playing time."
We also gave the voters the opportunity to weigh in with their initial reactions on two hot topics: the NBA's new two-day draft format and the highly anticipated 2025 NBA draft, headlined by Duke-bound Cooper Flagg.
Was the league's first two-day draft a success?
Yes: 15 votes
No: 5
The majority of execs were in favor of the shift to the two-day format. Even so, there was a wide range of opinions within the yes-no binary option and many voters said the NBA could still improve the draft moving forward.
"Having the ability to regroup after the first night and then meet most of the following day created a great process for our group in determining our next moves," one voter said. "We batted around dozens of trade scenarios, had time to watch a considerable amount of film and conduct additional background calls, map out strategies with agents of two-way and stash candidates we were interested in, and ultimately come to a consensus in our group.
"We executed multiple trades and landed on several players we're excited to have now on our extended roster. There's no way we could have accomplished all that in the chaotic fog of a late-night second round with just two minutes between picks."
Some of the two-day draft criticism came from an operational standpoint, with the second round taking place the following day, and two green room invitees, Kyle Filipowski and Johnny Furphy, having to leave Barclays Center without hearing their names called on the first night.
Others said it simply took too long ("a lot of yawns in the war room on Day 2"). One voter said the production value paled relative to the 2024 NHL draft, which took place at the Sphere in Las Vegas a day later.
"They should have not invited 20-plus players to the green room, and I even suggested inviting less would be the best way to go about it," one NBA general manager said. "To have two guys have to go home without getting drafted was not a good look at all."
Broadly speaking, team personnel we spoke with said they felt good about having the extra time -- something that might be put to better use next year now that teams understand the flow.
"Some of the people in our front office didn't like how much this second day helps the disorganized teams who typically wing it and can be taken advantage of from a strategy standpoint," one of the respondents said. "But the pros far outweigh the cons when it comes to better drafting and decision-making. There were a ton of trades and I think next year you'll see some real creativity now that we have a better idea for how the evening looks."
Who will be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA draft?
Cooper Flagg, Duke: 16 votes
Dylan Harper, Rutgers: 2
Airious "Ace" Bailey, Rutgers: 1
V.J. Edgecombe, Baylor: 1
On the heels of his positive showing in practices with the U.S. Select team, the top spot in the 2025 draft appears to be Flagg's to lose. The Duke-bound forward is likely to be the top defender in college basketball next season and continues to build out a more versatile offensive game, putting him in the driver's seat at No. 1 as a potential game-changer with a rare combination of skills.
"I haven't studied this class deeply enough yet and I'm sure our boards will all change, but from what I saw at Hoop Summit and in Vegas with USA Basketball, good luck catching that guy," one voter said. "[Flagg] could start for our team tonight and make a huge impact with his toughness, feel and instincts on both ends. His shooting looks good also."
The top of next year's draft projects to be stronger overall: Harper and Bailey are set to team up on what will be the most heavily scouted Rutgers team ever, with the Scarlet Knights sure to be a major draw for NBA personnel all season.
Also on the No. 1 radar is Edgecombe, who played with the Bahamian national team this summer and looked like he belonged, making a positive statement ahead of his debut for Baylor in the fall.
"I was in Spain for the Olympic qualifiers and [Edgecombe] was the best player on the floor in multiple games I attended," one scout said. "This guy has another gear that few players in the NBA have. He's a better ball handler and passer than people realize. The shooting is going to be OK. And he's absolutely fearless. I think he ends up being a point guard. I'm sky-high on him."