We are so close.
The NFL season is right around the corner. If you're like me, the next month will be filled with fantasy football drafts -- of both the real and mock variety -- and there's no shortage of storylines to mull over to get you ready for the season ahead. So let's do exactly that.
It's time for the preseason Field Pass!
Whom to take at No. 1?
By far the most popular question I'm asked in regard to fantasy football is who to take first overall? By far! Some years, that decision is more straightforward than others -- and this is one of those years -- but I still think offering multiple angles and players to consider is valuable.
My choice for 2024 is San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey, as he plays at the position where it's almost always hardest to find elite players and depth options, breaking the tie with top wideouts in this debate.
McCaffrey played north of 80% of the total snaps for the 49ers last season despite sitting out in Week 18. He led the NFL in rushing yards, was second in rushing attempts and was third in receptions among running backs with 67. Amazingly, McCaffrey's 4.2 catches per game were the fewest of any season in his career. Yes, even in a "down" year as a receiver, he was elite for his position.
The best RB with a massive role in an elite offense is too good to pass up at No. 1.
There were three other players I considered:
Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb: Lamb had 139 targets in his final 11 games in 2023, with five weeks of 32.5-plus fantasy points over that stretch.
Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill: There's no better bet to turn a catch into a touchdown than Hill, who saw nearly 11 targets per game last season and has been unstoppable for the Dolphins.
New York Jets RB Breece Hall: He averaged 20.0 fantasy points over the final 13 games last season. With a healthy Aaron Rodgers, Hall's touchdown upside is better.
Honorable mentions: Falcons RB Bijan Robinson, Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase, Vikings WR Justin Jefferson.
Players on the move
Let's play a quick game of "stock watch" for some of the best players who changed teams this offseason.
Stock up
Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley: He was the only threat in the New York Giants' offense, allowing teams to key on him. While his receiving production will likely be down in Philly, he should chew up yards and touchdowns much more easily.
Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry: Henry has long had elite weekly upside as the back best equipped to handle a ton of carries and find the end zone, but his weekly downside in Baltimore is decreased playing in a much better offense than Tennessee's, where he was held to 43 or fewer yards in seven games last season.
Green Bay Packers RB Josh Jacobs: The Packers paid a premium to acquire Jacobs, who should flourish behind a vastly superior run-blocking line and within an offense whose passing game defenses must fear.
Stock down
Houston Texans WR Stefon Diggs: Diggs is an incredible talent who goes from one elite quarterback to another, but competing for targets with Nico Collins and Tank Dell is a different dynamic from his clear-cut status as WR1 (by a wide margin) for much of his time in Buffalo (despite his modest 2023 second half).
Chicago Bears WR Keenan Allen: Allen is still among the best slot receivers in the NFL, but he's now part of what could soon be the best receiving trio in the league and has a much lower chance of seeing a 25% or more target share than he did in L.A.
Stock neutral
Texans RB Joe Mixon: Mixon goes from the lead back in an offense with an elite quarterback and lots of playmakers to the lead back in an offense with an elite quarterback and lots of playmakers.
Tennessee Titans WR Calvin Ridley: Ridley scored the 17th-most WR points in 2023, but it was an uneven ride (nine games under 10 points, eight games over). He'll see more volume in Tennessee but with inferior quarterback play.
Minnesota Vikings RB Aaron Jones: Jones has not been immune to a bit of competition for carries in the past (see: Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon), so even if he splits reps with anyone in Minnesota, he's clearly the most talented back in the offense and such a talented pass catcher that he remains on the RB2 radar.
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Rookie watch
Rookies making an immediate fantasy mark have become the norm, so let's dive into 10 we are most intrigued by going into camps.
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: A quarterback who has real rushing ability sets a floor in fantasy football. A quarterback who has elite rushing ability sets a massive ceiling. Daniels is the latter, with polished passing skills, too.
Caleb Williams, Bears: Williams enters one of the best situations for a rookie quarterback in quite some time, with a chance to pile up yards as a passer immediately. He's also mobile and will scramble for fantasy points.
Running back
Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers: Brooks was the first running back off the board and is very talented, but he's coming off a torn ACL suffered last November, making Carolina unlikely to lean too heavily on him. A medium-sized workload in a "work in progress" offense makes me cautious about his Year 1 outlook.
Wide receiver
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals: The best wideout in a star-studded class enters an ideal situation with a very good quarterback and minimal target competition. He's a top-10 wideout for me.
Malik Nabers, Giants: When you combine incredible talent with a clear path to leading the team in targets, you have my attention. The question for Nabers will be how his quarterback (Daniel Jones) performs.
Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills: No team overhauled its receiver room more than Buffalo this offseason, with Coleman offering the size and physicality to be Josh Allen's favorite red zone weapon.
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers: Even if the Chargers skew toward a more run-heavy offense, someone must be their No. 1 target. McConkey is set up for legitimate volume out of the gates to be a PPR fiend.
Rome Odunze, Bears: Odunze might be the third wideout on his own team -- and one of the best third wideouts the league has seen in years, as Chicago's room is just that stacked. Still, enough targets for a fantasy-relevant role will be hard to come by as a rookie.
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs: There is a nonzero chance that the fastest player in the NFL becomes the Chiefs' top wide receiver, but he's lower on the list because of the real possibility he will be, at best, third in line for targets in this offense.
Tight end
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders: On paper, Bowers landed in a less-than-ideal fantasy spot with two entrenched wideouts, another capable tight end and uncertain quarterback play. Still, he'll be a flier for me because he's talented enough to make any situation potentially work.
Repeat or regress
One of the lines we balance in fantasy football analysis is using prior years to predict future years, as not all things sustain annually. Let's look at some of the biggest surprises from fantasy football in 2023 and offer a thought on whether they'll repeat or regress in 2024.
Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua: REPEAT. Nacua had one of the greatest rookie receiver seasons ever and though his numbers were slightly down with Cooper Kupp (who missed extensive time due to injury) on the field, he is a safe bet for 140-plus targets this season.
Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert: REGRESS. Mostert had just two games with 100-plus rushing yards and 25 total receptions in 2023, but still scored the fifth-most fantasy points among all backs because of his unsustainable TD rate. He scored 21 touchdowns, a number that could be cut in half and still be considered a successful season.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: REGRESS. Remember, there is such thing as positive regression, too. Mahomes had just three games with 20-plus fantasy points in 2023, down from his 12, 12, 13, 6 (in a year in which he missed nearly three full games) and 13 in his prior seasons as a starter. The Chiefs have reloaded and he's back.
Detroit Lions TE Sam LaPorta: REPEAT. Touchdowns are not as sticky as targets, so LaPorta getting back to the end zone 10 times might not happen, but his five-plus targets in 15 out of 17 games should be a cinch to repeat. He's too good not to remain a star.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert: REGRESS. Herbert's 2023 season was complicated, as he was 12th in points per game among QBs prior to missing the final four games due to a finger injury. It wasn't terrible, but it wasn't the usual Herbert. With a run-heavier approach and a departure of serious receiving talent, Herbert sits outside my top 15 quarterbacks going into drafts.
Dolphins RB De'Von Achane: REPEAT. I don't expect Achane to score on one of every 12 touches in 2024, nor do I think he'll rush for 7.8 yards per attempt, but a larger workload and the hope of better health will lead to another year of massive-ceiling upside.
Sleepers
Everyone loves a good sleeper. However, with fantasy's rising popularity, sleepers are harder to find. Very few names are unknown to the public given how much fantasy coverage there is -- which is a great thing!
Rather than trying to stump you with names you've never heard of, I've gone with players whose projected points are outside the top 130 (as of now). These are equivalent to late-round fliers. You might notice a heavy emphasis on rookies.
Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills: I firmly believe that part of why Buffalo was comfortable with reshaping its WR room was its confidence in Shakir, who already has the trust of Josh Allen. Shakir could shift into a more perimeter role with Curtis Samuel added, and I expect plenty of volume to come his way.
Trey Benson, RB, Cardinals: Benson is the backup in Arizona, but with James Conner never having played a full season, there could be a pocket of games where Benson gets the chance to start. I think he will shine if that happens. He combines excellent speed and the ability to avoid tackles.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, Giants: Tracy is another backup runner, but what makes him so different is that he spent four seasons as a college wide receiver. He'll draw snaps in passing situations and hurry-up drives and the Giants (overall) have a thin backfield.
Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders: Rinse and repeat from what I said earlier about Bowers. Some players are so talented, they just defy how things might look on paper. Bowers has the talent to mash, regardless of who is under center and how many legit pass catchers surround him.
All-in players
Come mid-August, I'll have my annual "Field's Favorites" piece that highlights guys I am all about drafting this season. Before then, I want to highlight two names I'm all-in on this year. I've targeted them in countless mock (and soon-to-be real) drafts and rank them higher than my colleagues do.
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson: Richardson was limited to 12 quarters of play last season, finishing just two of his four starts. But that small sample size gave us a glimpse of what could be coming -- fantasy stardom.
Richardson had 10 rushing attempts and a rushing touchdown in both of the starts he finished, as the Colts have a litany of QB runs to rely upon at the goal line to complement running plays designed for Jonathan Taylor. Quarterbacks such as Cam Newton, Josh Allen and, of course, Jalen Hurts have shown that power rushing attempts by a quarterback are a massive task for defenses to take on.
Though Richardson has yet to prove he is a surgical passer in the NFL, I'm confident he'll get to the level required for him to become one of the most dangerous forces in the league. Indianapolis has plenty of weapons for him to throw to in a QB-friendly offense. If he stays healthy, the sky's the limit. He's my QB3 going into the season.
Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr.: We've seen megastar rookie wide receivers recently and I believe Harrison is next in line. Most who follow the NFL draft understand the pedigree of the player the Cardinals made the first non-QB taken, but I'm here to tell those who don't follow college football closely that this was not overhype.
Harrison has an incredible blend of size, speed, body control, route running, hands ... pretty much every skill a wide receiver needs to succeed. On top of the natural skill set, the opportunity is ripe.
Arizona's "next up" wide receivers on the depth chart are some combination of Zay Jones, Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch. All are useful players, but none will threaten Harrison as the WR1 of an offense led by Kyler Murray, a very good quarterback who we've seen depend heavily on his primary wideout in the past.
Cracking the top 10 of wide receivers is a difficult task given the incredible leaguewide talent at the position, but I'm bullish on Harrison taking flight right away in the NFL and indeed being a top-10 fantasy WR as a rookie.