As you get ready for fantasy football 2024, be sure to get plenty of practice by using our Mock Draft Lobby and keep track of Mike Clay's updated projections throughout the season.
Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
From the 2011 to 2022 seasons, there were 151 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before managing at least 50 touches the very next season. Of those 151, 101 (66.9%) scored more touchdowns the next season.
Focusing in on the 40 players in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns during the first year, 32 (80.0%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Of the 13 who scored either one or zero touchdowns, 11 (84.6%) found the end zone more often the next year. Slot WRs Jason Avant (2011-12) and Danny Amendola (2018-19) were responsible for the two exceptions.
Last season, 29 WR/TEs scored fewer than five TDs on 50-plus touches, with notables Dalton Kincaid (2), Drake London (2), DeMario Douglas (0), Chigoziem Okonkwo (1), Josh Downs (2) and Jerry Jeudy (2) scoring under three.
We see similar results if we run this test on running backs. There are 39 instances in which a back failed to reach seven touchdowns on 200-plus touches before managing 200 touches again the next season. Of those 39, 32 (or 82.1%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Interestingly, there were four backs who failed to reach four touchdowns in the first year, but each scored at least seven times the next season (Melvin Gordon III, Ryan Mathews, Lamar Miller, Brian Robinson Jr.). The average second-year touchdown total was 9.3!
In 2023, 14 RBs fell short of seven TDs on 200-plus touches. Of those 14, four fell short of five TDs: Jaylen Warren (210 touches, 4 TDs), Devin Singletary (246, 4), Alexander Mattison (210, 3) and AJ Dillon (200, 2).
Six of the seven players on that list one year ago scored more TDs in 2023, with Singletary the only exception.
If you skipped all of that, or just tuned out while scanning over the math, the point here is simple: NFL players tend to bounce back -- often in a big way -- when they post an unusually low touchdown number and see similar playing time the following season.
In this piece, I'll be referencing expected touchdowns (xTD), previously labeled as OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.
A careful examination of each of the below player's 2023 usage tells us that we should expect a boost in their scoring production this season.
Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score fewer touchdowns this season.
Note: This study is limited to regular season rushing and receiving data.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
2023 TDs: 3; 2024 projected TDs: 9
Wilson jumps off the page -- and not only due to the obvious reason of having Aaron Rodgers under center. Wilson's 2023 TD total (three) was less than half his expected total (6.4), based on his usage. He was limited to seven end zone targets in the Jets' struggling offense, but we've seen big goal line usage from him in the past (his 13 end zone targets in 2022 ranked fifth among WRs). Incredibly, Wilson ranks fourth among WRs in targets (315) but is tied for 45th in TDs (seven) since he was drafted in 2022.
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
2023 TDs: 2; 2024 projected TDs: 7
The first WR selected in the 2022 draft, London has enjoyed hefty target shares (29% in 2022, 23% in 2023), but Atlanta's low-volume offense has kept him outside the top-20 receivers in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns both years. London has scored a total of six TDs, which falls well below his 10.8 xTD during the span. Expect some regression to the mean in 2024, especially in an offense led by OC Zac Robinson and QB Kirk Cousins.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
2023 TDs: 2; 2024 projected TDs: 4
Kincaid ranked top-10 at tight end in targets, receptions and yardage as a rookie, but he was held to two TDs. He was certainly a bit unlucky (3.0 xTD), though a boost in work near the goal line will be important here as well (only three end zone targets). Kincaid should, in fact, see more overall and goal line looks with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis (combined for 22 of the team's 35 end zone targets in 2023) no longer on the roster.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2023 TDs: 3; 2024 projected TDs: 6
Touchdowns have alluded Godwin in recent seasons. The veteran receiver has 83-plus catches in three consecutive campaigns but has a total of 10 receiving TDs during that span. He was held to two receiving TDs and one rushing TD in 2023, despite posting a 7.2 xTD. That 4.2 gap was highest among all wide receivers. Godwin handled 11 end zone targets (his most since 2018) and has had TD success in the past (seven-plus scores in 2018, 2019 and 2020).
DeMario Douglas, WR, New England Patriots
2023 TDs: 0; 2024 projected TDs: 3
Douglas holds the unfortunate distinction of having the most receptions (49) among wide receivers without a single touchdown reception in 2023. The then-rookie slot receiver didn't get a ton of goal line work (2.0 xTD, three end zone targets), but his overall usage should've resulted in, at least, a few scores. Perhaps he'll be able to escape the Jakobi Meyers syndrome in New England's post-Bill Belichick era.
Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings
2023 TDs: 3; 2024 projected TDs: 7
This one feels a little bold considering Jones is entering his age-29 season. But (A) he was unlucky in this category in 2023, and (B) Minnesota signed him to lead its backfield. Jones scored three TDs last season, which was a far cry from the 11.2 he averaged the prior five seasons in Green Bay. Jones consistently exceeded his expected TD total during his Packers career (60 TDs, 42.8 xTD) but went the other way in 2023 (three TDs, 5.6 xTD). Even with Ty Chandler in the mix and factoring in some missed games, Jones is a candidate to double his 2023 TD total.
Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
2023 TDs: 1; 2024 projected TDs: 6
White has one career touchdown on 136 touches. That's bad luck in itself, though he was able to overcome the deficiency during the four games Josh Jacobs was sidelined in 2023. White delivered four consecutive top-20 fantasy outings and was 11th among RBs in points despite scoring only one TD during the span. He averaged 21.0 carries and 3.3 targets per game during those four weeks. If White leads the Las Vegas backfield in 2024 as expected, he'll see a big boost in carries inside the 5-yard line (three in 2023) and touchdowns.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns
2023 TDs: 2; 2024 projected TDs: 4
Jeudy's TD output has been all over the map since he entered the league as a first-round pick in 2020. He was held to a total of three TDs during his first two seasons before "breaking out" with six in 2022. He regressed to two TDs in 2023, despite Denver ranking eighth in the NFL with 28 passing TDs. Jeudy hung near his expected TD during his first three campaigns, but his two scores in 2023 fell well below expected (4.3 xTD, six end zone targets).
Others:
Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Darnell Mooney, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
Tyler Conklin, TE, New York Jets