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Football statistics are hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
The 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 versions of this article provide overwhelming evidence.
There are 113 names in those pieces and, in 103 cases, the player scored fewer touchdowns the following season. That's an absurd hit rate of 91.2%. Five exceptions came during the historically offensive 2018 and 2020 seasons (not to mention that four of Taysom Hill's nine scores came during his four unexpected starts at QB). Last season, the piece correctly identified 14 of 16 TD dippers, with Jalen Hurts (13 to 15) and CeeDee Lamb (9 to 14) the lone exceptions. The 16 players averaged 11.0 TDs in 2022, were projected for 6.9 TDs in 2023 and ended up averaging 6.0 TDs.
This is far from surprising, as we've learned over the years that players simply cannot sustain extremely high scoring rates. It's not a knock on their talent. Scoring is simply more about opportunity.
You want proof? Good. I have it.
During the 2011 to 2022 seasons, there were 233 instances in which a player totaled 10 or more touchdowns as a rusher or receiver. Of those players, a whopping 193 (82.8%) scored fewer touchdowns the very next season and the average change was a decrease of 5.1. Of the 55 instances in which a player scored 14-plus touchdowns, 53 (96.3%) scored fewer times the next year (average dip of 8.6). The only exceptions were Todd Gurley (19 in 2017, 21 in 2018) and Marshawn Lynch (14 in 2013, 17 in 2014).
Every player who scored 14-plus TDs in 2022 found the end zone less often in 2023: Austin Ekeler (18 to 6), Jamaal Williams (17 to 1) and Davante Adams (14 to 8).
Last season, Raheem Mostert (21), Christian McCaffrey (21), Hurts (15), Josh Allen (15), Kyren Williams (15) and Lamb (14) made up the list of players who reached 14 offensive TDs.
As if that's not enough to help us predict touchdown regression, we also have expected touchdowns (xTD), previously labeled as OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.
A careful examination of each of the below player's 2023 usage tells us that we should expect a drop in scoring production this season.
Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score more touchdowns this season.
NOTE: This study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
2023 TDs: 21; 2024 projected TDs: 9
De'Von Achane, RB, Dolphins 2023 TDs: 11; 2024 projected TDs: 8
Teammates Mostert and Achane are grouped together, as both defied the odds at epic levels in 2023. The 7.3 gap between Mostert's actual TD total (21) and his expected TD total (13.7) is 10th-highest among all players since 2011. The nine players ahead of him on that list all scored fewer TDs the following season, and only two cleared 11. Mostert's age (32) only exacerbates the likelihood of a sizable decline. Achane's historical efficiency (7.7 YPC, 8.5% TD%) is nowhere close to sustainable. The then-rookie ranked ninth among RBs in touchdowns (11) but 44th in touches (130) and 36th in carries inside the 5-yard line (four).
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
2023 TDs: 21; 2024 projected TDs: 16
It's dangerous to bet against McCaffrey, but if he scores 20-plus TDs again, he'll be only the sixth back in league history to pull it off. Even with an extra game, it will be an impressive achievement in the modern NFL. McCaffrey has generally been a TD machine (81 in 91 games), though he's entering a tricky spot as he enters his age-28 season off consecutive seasons with 300-plus touches. McCaffrey had 300-plus touches in both 2018 and 2019 prior to missing all but 10 games during the following two campaigns.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
2023 TDs: 15; 2024 projected TDs: 10
Hurts has 38 rushing TDs over the past three seasons, including a career-high 15 in 2023. The boost from 13 in 2022 to 15 in 2023 came despite a dip in carries (165 to 157), xTD (14.0 to 13.5) and carries inside the 5-yard line (20 to 16). Hurts will still benefit from the Brotherly Shove, though perhaps with less effectiveness (Jason Kelce retired) and perhaps not as often (Saquon Barkley was signed). If Hurts rushes for 10-plus TDs this season, he'll be the first QB to achieve that milestone more than three times.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
2023 TDs: 15; 2024 projected TDs: 9
Allen has 53 career rushing TDs and has never finished a season lower than third among quarterbacks in the category. And yet his 15 rushing scores in 2023 were nearly double his 7.6 average during his first five NFL campaigns. Allen, who had a previous career high of nine rush TDs (2019), did hit career-best marks in both xTD (11.2) and carries inside the 5 (14), but he was still well above expectations. A return to earth is likely in the cards.
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
2023 TDs: 15; 2024 projected TDs: 12
Repeating a 15-touchdowns-in-12-games season is a big ask for any player, let alone one who has added touch competition the following season. Williams still figures to be the feature back in Los Angeles, but third-round rookie Blake Corum will be mixed in as well. Williams ranked 16th among RBs in touches last season but was third in touchdowns (15), fourth in xTD (12.8) and sixth in carries inside the 5 (13).
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
2023 TDs: 14; 2024 projected TDs: 10
Lamb has seen an increase in routes, target share, targets, receptions, yardage, TDs and fantasy points during each of his four seasons in the NFL. That trend figures to end in 2024, as Lamb is coming off what may be the best season of his career (135-1,749-12 on 181 targets). Lamb also scored a pair of rushing TDs, which led to 14 total scored and a 13.0 xTD. He handled 20 end zone targets (second among WRs) after totaling 23 during his first three seasons. Expect a slight dip here.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions
2023 TDs: 10; 2024 projected TDs: 7
LaPorta defied the odds by pacing all tight ends in fantasy points as a rookie, but he did so with a bit of luck in the scoring department. LaPorta ranked no better than fourth at the position in routes, targets, receptions and yards, but he led the way with 10 TDs. That put him well above his 6.0 xTD, and he "only" saw seven end zone targets. Expect a dip, though it should be slight in one of the league's best offenses.
Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
2023 TDs: 10; 2024 projected TDs: 5
Addison was one of nine wide receivers who produced double-digit touchdowns in 2023. The then-rookie was on the field quite a bit (eighth among WRs with 569 routes run), though he finished 25th or lower in target share, targets, receptions and yardage. Addison did see decent usage near the goal line (10 end zone targets), but his TD total (10) was still well above his 7.6 xTD. Addison was a candidate for a dip in touchdowns anyway, but the loss of Kirk Cousins further complicates his outlook.
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
2023 TDs: 10; 2024 projected TDs: 6
Reed is in a very similar situation to Addison, though he was even more "lucky" as a rookie. The 2023 second-round pick impressed with 10 TDs (fifth among WRs), but he ranked outside the top 25 in touches (75), yards (912) and expected TDs (5.2). He was limited to eight end zone targets, and two of his 10 scores came on 11 carries (0.4 xTD). Especially if Christian Watson (14 end zone targets in nine games in 2023) is healthy, Reed is a strong bet for a big dip.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
2023 TDs: 10; 2024 projected TDs: 3
It's almost comical to see Meyers on this list, considering he used to be the poster boy for bad TD luck. After totaling zero TDs on 85 receptions during his first two seasons, Meyers progressed to two scores in 2021, six in 2022 and 10 (eight receiving, two rushing) in 2023. Sixteen TDs over the last two seasons is a nice number, but it's not as exciting when you consider his 9.6 xTD and 11 total end zone targets during the span. In fact, Meyers' seven end zone targets in 2023 accounts for 33% of his career total. Expect a big dip in 2024.
Gus Edwards, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
2023 TDs: 13; 2024 projected TDs: 6
Who led the NFL in carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line in 2023? Believe it or not, it was Edwards (he and Mostert had a league-high 19). The heavy goal line usage helped Edwards to 13 TDs, which accounts for 50% of his career total. In fact, the 19 carries inside the 5 were two more than he had in his career entering the season. Edwards is now with the Chargers and, though he still figures to operate as his team's primary goal line back, a big dip in scoring is the most likely outcome for the 29 year old.
Others: Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars; Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers; Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos; Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns